Esports Match winner: arbitrage calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 5%–10%
- Sample arbitrage return
- -2.94%
- Profit on every outcome
- -2.94
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 103.03%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Team A | 1.500 | 1.500 | 64.71 |
| Back Team B | 2.750 | 2.750 | 35.29 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team A | Team A | 97.06 | 0.00 | -2.94 |
| Team B | Team B | 97.06 | 0.00 | -2.94 |
No arbitrage: -2.94% return
Esports match-winner markets carry higher margins than mainstream sports and thinner liquidity, which makes cross-book price differences common but limits smaller.
Market structure
Esports Match winner has 2 outcomes (
Team A, Team B). Bookmakers typically price it with an overround between 5% and
10%. For an arbitrage you need prices from at least two books whose implied probabilities, taken at the best price per outcome, add up to less than 100%.
Worked example
Two books quote 1.45 / 2.75 and 1.50 / 2.65. Taking the best price for each outcome (1.50 / 2.75) gives an implied sum of 103.03%. Arbitrage: no, return -2.94%. The calculator above is pre-filled with those best prices; the stakes for 100 in total are 64.71 / 35.29.
| Outcome | Book A | Book B | Best | Stake of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team A | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 64.71 |
| Team B | 2.75 | 2.65 | 2.75 | 35.29 |
Two-way specifics
Two-way markets are the simplest to arbitrage: two prices, two stakes, one check that the implied probabilities sum below 100%. Watch for different settlement rules between books (retirements, postponements).
Frequently asked questions
How many legs does a Esports Match winner arbitrage need?
One per outcome: 2 legs covering Team A, Team B. Every outcome must be backed for the position to profit whatever happens.
How large is the overround in Esports Match winner?
Typically 5% to 10% at a single book. An arbitrage needs the best prices across books to sum below 100%, so the gap between books has to exceed the margin.
Is the worked example on this page a real arbitrage?
The sample prices give an implied sum of 103.03% at the best price per outcome (arbitrage: no). They are illustrative; live prices change constantly.
What can go wrong with an arbitrage across 2 outcomes?
A leg not being available at the assumed price, a void or push on one leg, different settlement rules between books, and stake limits that stop you placing the full amount.