Smarkets vs Pinnacle arbitrage
- Smarkets rate
- 2%
- Pinnacle rate
- 0%
- Example return
- 4.45%
- Profit on every outcome
- 4.45
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 95.74%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Outcome 1 | 2.100 | 2.078 | 50.26 |
| Back Outcome 2 | 2.100 | 2.100 | 49.74 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | Outcome 1 | 105.55 | 1.11 | 4.45 |
| Outcome 2 | Outcome 2 | 104.45 | 0.00 | 4.45 |
Arbitrage: 4.45% return, 4.45 profit on every outcome
The calculator above has one leg at Smarkets and one at Pinnacle, each with its own commission model. Enter the best price each venue offers on opposite outcomes and the stakes for equal profit follow.
Worked example
With 2.10 available on each side, one at each venue, the implied probabilities after commission add up to 95.74%. Arbitrage: yes; return 4.45% (4.45 on 100), staking 50.26 at Smarkets and 49.74 at Pinnacle.
| Venue | Odds | Effective | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 2.10 | 2.078 | 50.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 2.100 | 49.74 |
What each venue's commission does
Smarkets charges 2% net winnings; even money there is worth 1.980.
Pinnacle charges no commission; its margin is inside the price.
| Odds | Effective | American | Break-even | Net profit on 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 1.490 | -204 | 67.11% | 49.00 |
| 1.91 | 1.892 | -112 | 52.86% | 89.18 |
| 2.00 | 1.980 | -102 | 50.51% | 98.00 |
| 2.50 | 2.470 | +147 | 40.49% | 147.00 |
| 3.00 | 2.960 | +196 | 33.78% | 196.00 |
| 5.00 | 4.920 | +392 | 20.33% | 392.00 |
| 10.00 | 9.820 | +882 | 10.18% | 882.00 |
| Odds | Effective | American | Break-even | Net profit on 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 1.500 | -200 | 66.67% | 50.00 |
| 1.91 | 1.910 | -110 | 52.36% | 91.00 |
| 2.00 | 2.000 | +100 | 50.00% | 100.00 |
| 2.50 | 2.500 | +150 | 40.00% | 150.00 |
| 3.00 | 3.000 | +200 | 33.33% | 200.00 |
| 5.00 | 5.000 | +400 | 20.00% | 400.00 |
| 10.00 | 10.000 | +900 | 10.00% | 900.00 |
Step by step
- Find the market on both venues and note the best price for each outcome at each venue.
- Enter the price from Smarkets on one leg and the price from Pinnacle on the other; both legs already carry the right commission.
- Check the badge and the return. Anything under about 0.5% is usually eaten by rounding and price moves.
- Use rounding mode to see the profit range with stakes rounded to amounts the venues accept, then place the faster-moving leg first.
When it is worth it
A pair like Smarkets and Pinnacle produces arbitrage when they disagree about the same event, which happens most around news, in thin markets and close to the start. The commission on each side sets the size of disagreement needed: with both venues' charges included, the implied probabilities must still sum below 100%.
Practical notes
- Place the leg at the faster-moving venue first.
- Fees and commission on prediction markets can differ by market category; the placeholder here is a single rate.
- Both venues may apply their charge to your net position in a market rather than to each bet.
Frequently asked questions
How do I find arbitrage between Smarkets and Pinnacle?
Take the best price at each venue on opposite outcomes, apply each venue's commission, and check whether the implied probabilities add up to less than 100%. The calculator above does the arithmetic and sizes the stakes.
Which venue charges more?
Smarkets is set at 2% net winnings and Pinnacle at 0% No commission on this page. Both are placeholders; confirm them in your accounts.
Does the example on this page work in practice?
It shows the arithmetic for identical prices at both venues; real prices differ, and an arbitrage appears only when the two venues disagree enough to cover both commissions.
What are the risks?
Price moves between placing the two legs, different settlement rules at the two venues, limits on stake size, and fees that differ from the placeholder rates used here.