Soccer 1X2 (match result): arbitrage calculator
- Market
- 3-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–8%
- Sample arbitrage return
- -0.66%
- Profit on every outcome
- -0.66
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 100.67%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Home | 2.300 | 2.300 | 43.19 |
| Back Draw | 3.400 | 3.400 | 29.22 |
| Back Away | 3.600 | 3.600 | 27.59 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Home | 99.34 | 0.00 | -0.66 |
| Draw | Draw | 99.34 | 0.00 | -0.66 |
| Away | Away | 99.34 | 0.00 | -0.66 |
No arbitrage: -0.66% return
The 1X2 market prices three results: home win, draw, away win. The draw is the leg bettors most often forget when checking whether prices form an arbitrage, and it is also where bookmakers disagree most, which makes 1X2 one of the richer markets for cross-book comparison.
Market structure
Soccer 1X2 (match result) has 3 outcomes (
Home, Draw, Away). Bookmakers typically price it with an overround between 3% and
8%. For an arbitrage you need prices from at least two books whose implied probabilities, taken at the best price per outcome, add up to less than 100%.
Worked example
Two books quote 2.20 / 3.40 / 3.60 and 2.30 / 3.30 / 3.50. Taking the best price for each outcome (2.30 / 3.40 / 3.60) gives an implied sum of 100.67%. Arbitrage: no, return -0.66%. The calculator above is pre-filled with those best prices; the stakes for 100 in total are 43.19 / 29.22 / 27.59.
| Outcome | Book A | Book B | Best | Stake of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 43.19 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 29.22 |
| Away | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 27.59 |
Three-way specifics
With three outcomes the split is rarely obvious by eye, and a single leg being unavailable at the assumed price breaks the position. Check the draw price last: it is the leg most often limited.
Frequently asked questions
How many legs does a Soccer 1X2 (match result) arbitrage need?
One per outcome: 3 legs covering Home, Draw, Away. Every outcome must be backed for the position to profit whatever happens.
How large is the overround in Soccer 1X2 (match result)?
Typically 3% to 8% at a single book. An arbitrage needs the best prices across books to sum below 100%, so the gap between books has to exceed the margin.
Is the worked example on this page a real arbitrage?
The sample prices give an implied sum of 100.67% at the best price per outcome (arbitrage: no). They are illustrative; live prices change constantly.
What can go wrong with an arbitrage across 3 outcomes?
A leg not being available at the assumed price, a void or push on one leg, different settlement rules between books, and stake limits that stop you placing the full amount.