Soccer Over/under 2.5 goals: arbitrage calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–7%
- Sample arbitrage return
- -2.50%
- Profit on every outcome
- -2.50
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 102.56%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Over 2.5 | 1.950 | 1.950 | 50.00 |
| Back Under 2.5 | 1.950 | 1.950 | 50.00 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 97.50 | 0.00 | -2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 97.50 | 0.00 | -2.50 |
No arbitrage: -2.50% return
Over/under 2.5 goals is a two-way market with no push: a half-goal line cannot land exactly. Different books may quote different lines (2.5 versus 3.0), and only prices on the same line form an arbitrage.
Market structure
Soccer Over/under 2.5 goals has 2 outcomes (
Over 2.5, Under 2.5). Bookmakers typically price it with an overround between 3% and
7%. For an arbitrage you need prices from at least two books whose implied probabilities, taken at the best price per outcome, add up to less than 100%.
Worked example
Two books quote 1.90 / 1.95 and 1.95 / 1.90. Taking the best price for each outcome (1.95 / 1.95) gives an implied sum of 102.56%. Arbitrage: no, return -2.50%. The calculator above is pre-filled with those best prices; the stakes for 100 in total are 50.00 / 50.00.
| Outcome | Book A | Book B | Best | Stake of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 50.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 50.00 |
Two-way specifics
Totals at different books can sit on different lines (2.5 at one, 3 at another). Only identical lines form an arbitrage; a half-point difference is a middle, which is a different bet.
Frequently asked questions
How many legs does a Soccer Over/under 2.5 goals arbitrage need?
One per outcome: 2 legs covering Over 2.5, Under 2.5. Every outcome must be backed for the position to profit whatever happens.
How large is the overround in Soccer Over/under 2.5 goals?
Typically 3% to 7% at a single book. An arbitrage needs the best prices across books to sum below 100%, so the gap between books has to exceed the margin.
Is the worked example on this page a real arbitrage?
The sample prices give an implied sum of 102.56% at the best price per outcome (arbitrage: no). They are illustrative; live prices change constantly.
What can go wrong with an arbitrage across 2 outcomes?
A leg not being available at the assumed price, a void or push on one leg, different settlement rules between books, and stake limits that stop you placing the full amount.