MLB Moneyline: devig calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–5%
- Sample overround
- 3.36%
- Worst-case probabilities are per-outcome minimums and do not add up to 100%.
| Outcome | Multiplicative | Additive | Powerk = 1.051 | Shinz = 0.034 | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 57.93%1.726 | 58.20%1.718 | 58.33%1.714 | 58.20%1.718 | 57.93%1.726 |
| Outcome 2 | 42.07%2.377 | 41.80%2.392 | 41.67%2.400 | 41.80%2.392 | 41.67%2.400 |
- Overround
- 3.36%
- Margin
- 3.25%
- Outcomes
- 2
Overround 3.36%
MLB moneylines depend heavily on the listed starting pitcher; check whether a book voids or re-prices the bet if the pitcher changes, because settlement rules differ.
Overround in this market
MLB Moneyline has 2 outcomes (
Favorite, Underdog). Bookmakers usually price it with an overround between 3% and 5%. Sharper books sit at the low end; recreational books and multi-way fields at the high end.
Worked example
Sample prices of 1.67 / 2.30 carry an overround of 3.36% (margin 3.25%). Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 57.9% / 42.1% and fair odds of 1.73 / 2.38. The calculator above starts from these prices and shows every method side by side.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied | Fair probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.67 | 59.9% | 57.9% | 1.73 |
| Underdog | 2.30 | 43.5% | 42.1% | 2.38 |
Method choice
In this 2-way market, with prices this close, the methods agree closely. Differences appear when one side is a heavy favourite; then the power and Shin columns are the ones to trust for the outsider's fair price.
Frequently asked questions
What is a normal overround for MLB Moneyline?
Between 3% and 5% at most bookmakers. Lower means a sharper book; multi-way fields run higher.
Which devig method should I use for MLB Moneyline?
With 2 outcomes priced close together the methods agree. When one outcome is a heavy favourite or the field is large, power or Shin better model where the margin sits; worst case gives the most conservative probability.
What are the fair odds for the sample prices?
The sample prices 1.67 / 2.30 carry an overround of 3.36%. Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 57.9% / 42.1% and fair odds of 1.73 / 2.38.
Can I use the fair probability to size a bet?
Yes: enter it with an offered price in the EV & Kelly calculator, or use the devig calculator's price-check panel, which reports edge and Kelly stake for each method.