Politics Election winner: devig calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 2%–6%
- Sample overround
- 4.17%
- Worst-case probabilities are per-outcome minimums and do not add up to 100%.
| Outcome | Multiplicative | Additive | Powerk = 1.065 | Shinz = 0.042 | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 60.00%1.667 | 60.42%1.655 | 60.63%1.649 | 60.42%1.655 | 60.00%1.667 |
| Outcome 2 | 40.00%2.500 | 39.58%2.526 | 39.37%2.540 | 39.58%2.526 | 39.37%2.540 |
- Overround
- 4.17%
- Margin
- 4.00%
- Outcomes
- 2
Overround 4.17%
Election markets are two-way at most bookmakers and trade continuously on prediction markets. Settlement definitions (declared winner, inauguration) differ between venues, so read them before arbitraging across a bookmaker and a prediction market.
Overround in this market
Politics Election winner has 2 outcomes (
Candidate A, Candidate B). Bookmakers usually price it with an overround between 2% and 6%. Sharper books sit at the low end; recreational books and multi-way fields at the high end.
Worked example
Sample prices of 1.60 / 2.40 carry an overround of 4.17% (margin 4.00%). Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 60.0% / 40.0% and fair odds of 1.67 / 2.50. The calculator above starts from these prices and shows every method side by side.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied | Fair probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate A | 1.60 | 62.5% | 60.0% | 1.67 |
| Candidate B | 2.40 | 41.7% | 40.0% | 2.50 |
Method choice
In this 2-way market, with prices this close, the methods agree closely. Differences appear when one side is a heavy favourite; then the power and Shin columns are the ones to trust for the outsider's fair price.
Frequently asked questions
What is a normal overround for Politics Election winner?
Between 2% and 6% at most bookmakers. Lower means a sharper book; multi-way fields run higher.
Which devig method should I use for Politics Election winner?
With 2 outcomes priced close together the methods agree. When one outcome is a heavy favourite or the field is large, power or Shin better model where the margin sits; worst case gives the most conservative probability.
What are the fair odds for the sample prices?
The sample prices 1.60 / 2.40 carry an overround of 4.17%. Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 60.0% / 40.0% and fair odds of 1.67 / 2.50.
Can I use the fair probability to size a bet?
Yes: enter it with an offered price in the EV & Kelly calculator, or use the devig calculator's price-check panel, which reports edge and Kelly stake for each method.