Golf Tournament winner (outright): arbitrage calculator
- Market
- 8-way
- Typical overround
- 15%–40%
- Sample arbitrage return
- -13.47%
- Profit on every outcome
- -13.47
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 115.56%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Player 1 | 8.500 | 8.500 | 10.18 |
| Back Player 2 | 11.000 | 11.000 | 7.87 |
| Back Player 3 | 12.000 | 12.000 | 7.21 |
| Back Player 4 | 16.000 | 16.000 | 5.41 |
| Back Player 5 | 19.000 | 19.000 | 4.55 |
| Back Player 6 | 23.000 | 23.000 | 3.76 |
| Back Player 7 | 26.000 | 26.000 | 3.33 |
| Back Field | 1.500 | 1.500 | 57.69 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | Player 1 | 86.53 | 0.00 | -13.47 |
| Player 2 | Player 2 | 86.53 | 0.00 | -13.47 |
| Player 3 | Player 3 | 86.53 | 0.00 | -13.47 |
| Player 4 | Player 4 | 86.53 | 0.00 | -13.47 |
| Player 5 | Player 5 | 86.53 | 0.00 | -13.47 |
| Player 6 | Player 6 | 86.53 | 0.00 | -13.47 |
| Player 7 | Player 7 | 86.53 | 0.00 | -13.47 |
| Field | Field | 86.53 | 0.00 | -13.47 |
No arbitrage: -13.47% return
Outright golf markets have dozens of runners and overrounds far above two-way markets. Dead-heat rules apply when players tie for a placing, and each-way terms vary by book; both affect what a price is really worth.
Market structure
Golf Tournament winner (outright) has 8 outcomes (
Player 1, Player 2, Player 3, Player 4, Player 5, Player 6, Player 7, Field). Bookmakers typically price it with an overround between 15% and
40%, more for fields with many runners. For an arbitrage you need prices from at least two books whose implied probabilities, taken at the best price per outcome, add up to less than 100%.
Worked example
Two books quote 8.00 / 10.00 / 12.00 / 15.00 / 18.00 / 22.00 / 25.00 / 1.50 and 8.50 / 11.00 / 12.00 / 16.00 / 19.00 / 23.00 / 26.00 / 1.48. Taking the best price for each outcome (8.50 / 11.00 / 12.00 / 16.00 / 19.00 / 23.00 / 26.00 / 1.50) gives an implied sum of 115.56%. Arbitrage: no, return -13.47%. The calculator above is pre-filled with those best prices; the stakes for 100 in total are 10.18 / 7.87 / 7.21 / 5.41 / 4.55 / 3.76 / 3.33 / 57.69.
| Outcome | Book A | Book B | Best | Stake of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 8.00 | 8.50 | 8.50 | 10.18 |
| Player 2 | 10.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 7.87 |
| Player 3 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 7.21 |
| Player 4 | 15.00 | 16.00 | 16.00 | 5.41 |
| Player 5 | 18.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 | 4.55 |
| Player 6 | 22.00 | 23.00 | 23.00 | 3.76 |
| Player 7 | 25.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | 3.33 |
| Field | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.50 | 57.69 |
Multi-way specifics
Outright and win markets have many runners, and the arbitrage usually spans several books. Dead-heat rules and each-way terms differ by book, so read the settlement terms before assuming a price is what it appears.
Frequently asked questions
How many legs does a Golf Tournament winner (outright) arbitrage need?
One per outcome: 8 legs covering Player 1, Player 2, Player 3, Player 4, Player 5, Player 6, Player 7, Field. Every outcome must be backed for the position to profit whatever happens.
How large is the overround in Golf Tournament winner (outright)?
Typically 15% to 40% at a single book. An arbitrage needs the best prices across books to sum below 100%, so the gap between books has to exceed the margin.
Is the worked example on this page a real arbitrage?
The sample prices give an implied sum of 115.56% at the best price per outcome (arbitrage: no). They are illustrative; live prices change constantly.
What can go wrong with an arbitrage across 8 outcomes?
A leg not being available at the assumed price, a void or push on one leg, different settlement rules between books, and stake limits that stop you placing the full amount.