Golf Tournament winner (outright): devig calculator
- Market
- 8-way
- Typical overround
- 15%–40%
- Sample overround
- 18.27%
- Worst-case probabilities are per-outcome minimums and do not add up to 100%.
| Outcome | Multiplicative | Additive | Powerk = 1.133 | Shinz = 0.028 | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 10.57%9.461 | 10.22%9.788 | 9.47%10.558 | 10.31%9.702 | 9.47%10.558 |
| Outcome 2 | 8.46%11.827 | 7.72%12.959 | 7.35%13.596 | 8.00%12.504 | 7.35%13.596 |
| Outcome 3 | 7.05%14.192 | 6.05%16.529 | 5.98%16.717 | 6.46%15.469 | 5.98%16.717 |
| Outcome 4 | 5.64%17.740 | 4.38%22.814 | 4.65%21.528 | 4.94%20.233 | 4.38%22.814 |
| Outcome 5 | 4.70%21.288 | 3.27%30.561 | 3.78%26.470 | 3.94%25.395 | 3.27%30.561 |
| Outcome 6 | 3.84%26.019 | 2.26%44.209 | 3.01%33.230 | 3.04%32.925 | 2.26%44.209 |
| Outcome 7 | 3.38%29.567 | 1.72%58.257 | 2.60%38.411 | 2.56%39.080 | 1.72%58.257 |
| Outcome 8 | 56.37%1.774 | 64.38%1.553 | 63.16%1.583 | 60.76%1.646 | 56.37%1.774 |
- Overround
- 18.27%
- Margin
- 15.45%
- Outcomes
- 8
Overround 18.27%
Outright golf markets have dozens of runners and overrounds far above two-way markets. Dead-heat rules apply when players tie for a placing, and each-way terms vary by book; both affect what a price is really worth.
Overround in this market
Golf Tournament winner (outright) has 8 outcomes (
Player 1, Player 2, Player 3, Player 4, Player 5, Player 6, Player 7, Field). Bookmakers usually price it with an overround between 15% and 40%. Sharper books sit at the low end; recreational books and multi-way fields at the high end.
Worked example
Sample prices of 8.00 / 10.00 / 12.00 / 15.00 / 18.00 / 22.00 / 25.00 / 1.50 carry an overround of 18.27% (margin 15.45%). Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 10.6% / 8.5% / 7.0% / 5.6% / 4.7% / 3.8% / 3.4% / 56.4% and fair odds of 9.46 / 11.83 / 14.19 / 17.74 / 21.29 / 26.02 / 29.57 / 1.77. The calculator above starts from these prices and shows every method side by side.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied | Fair probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 8.00 | 12.5% | 10.6% | 9.46 |
| Player 2 | 10.00 | 10.0% | 8.5% | 11.83 |
| Player 3 | 12.00 | 8.3% | 7.0% | 14.19 |
| Player 4 | 15.00 | 6.7% | 5.6% | 17.74 |
| Player 5 | 18.00 | 5.6% | 4.7% | 21.29 |
| Player 6 | 22.00 | 4.5% | 3.8% | 26.02 |
| Player 7 | 25.00 | 4.0% | 3.4% | 29.57 |
| Field | 1.50 | 66.7% | 56.4% | 1.77 |
Multi-way markets and method choice
The larger the field, the more the methods disagree. Multiplicative devigging spreads the margin evenly and overrates the favourites' fair chance; power and Shin move more of the margin onto the outsiders, which matches how bookmakers actually price them. Compare all five before pricing a longshot.
Frequently asked questions
What is a normal overround for Golf Tournament winner (outright)?
Between 15% and 40% at most bookmakers. Lower means a sharper book; multi-way fields run higher.
Which devig method should I use for Golf Tournament winner (outright)?
With 8 outcomes priced close together the methods agree. When one outcome is a heavy favourite or the field is large, power or Shin better model where the margin sits; worst case gives the most conservative probability.
What are the fair odds for the sample prices?
The sample prices 8.00 / 10.00 / 12.00 / 15.00 / 18.00 / 22.00 / 25.00 / 1.50 carry an overround of 18.27%. Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 10.6% / 8.5% / 7.0% / 5.6% / 4.7% / 3.8% / 3.4% / 56.4% and fair odds of 9.46 / 11.83 / 14.19 / 17.74 / 21.29 / 26.02 / 29.57 / 1.77.
Can I use the fair probability to size a bet?
Yes: enter it with an offered price in the EV & Kelly calculator, or use the devig calculator's price-check panel, which reports edge and Kelly stake for each method.