MMA Fight winner: arbitrage calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 4%–8%
- Sample arbitrage return
- -1.70%
- Profit on every outcome
- -1.70
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 101.73%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Fighter A | 1.400 | 1.400 | 70.21 |
| Back Fighter B | 3.300 | 3.300 | 29.79 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fighter A | Fighter A | 98.30 | 0.00 | -1.70 |
| Fighter B | Fighter B | 98.30 | 0.00 | -1.70 |
No arbitrage: -1.70% return
MMA fight winner is two-way with a draw usually voiding bets. Margins are higher than in mainstream team sports, so devigging matters more when pricing one side.
Market structure
MMA Fight winner has 2 outcomes (
Fighter A, Fighter B). Bookmakers typically price it with an overround between 4% and
8%. For an arbitrage you need prices from at least two books whose implied probabilities, taken at the best price per outcome, add up to less than 100%.
Worked example
Two books quote 1.35 / 3.30 and 1.40 / 3.10. Taking the best price for each outcome (1.40 / 3.30) gives an implied sum of 101.73%. Arbitrage: no, return -1.70%. The calculator above is pre-filled with those best prices; the stakes for 100 in total are 70.21 / 29.79.
| Outcome | Book A | Book B | Best | Stake of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fighter A | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 70.21 |
| Fighter B | 3.30 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 29.79 |
Two-way specifics
Two-way markets are the simplest to arbitrage: two prices, two stakes, one check that the implied probabilities sum below 100%. Watch for different settlement rules between books (retirements, postponements).
Frequently asked questions
How many legs does a MMA Fight winner arbitrage need?
One per outcome: 2 legs covering Fighter A, Fighter B. Every outcome must be backed for the position to profit whatever happens.
How large is the overround in MMA Fight winner?
Typically 4% to 8% at a single book. An arbitrage needs the best prices across books to sum below 100%, so the gap between books has to exceed the margin.
Is the worked example on this page a real arbitrage?
The sample prices give an implied sum of 101.73% at the best price per outcome (arbitrage: no). They are illustrative; live prices change constantly.
What can go wrong with an arbitrage across 2 outcomes?
A leg not being available at the assumed price, a void or push on one leg, different settlement rules between books, and stake limits that stop you placing the full amount.