MMA Fight winner: devig calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 4%–8%
- Sample overround
- 4.38%
- Worst-case probabilities are per-outcome minimums and do not add up to 100%.
| Outcome | Multiplicative | Additive | Powerk = 1.077 | Shinz = 0.044 | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 70.97%1.409 | 71.89%1.391 | 72.37%1.382 | 71.89%1.391 | 70.97%1.409 |
| Outcome 2 | 29.03%3.444 | 28.11%3.557 | 27.63%3.620 | 28.11%3.557 | 27.63%3.620 |
- Overround
- 4.38%
- Margin
- 4.19%
- Outcomes
- 2
Overround 4.38%
MMA fight winner is two-way with a draw usually voiding bets. Margins are higher than in mainstream team sports, so devigging matters more when pricing one side.
Overround in this market
MMA Fight winner has 2 outcomes (
Fighter A, Fighter B). Bookmakers usually price it with an overround between 4% and 8%. Sharper books sit at the low end; recreational books and multi-way fields at the high end.
Worked example
Sample prices of 1.35 / 3.30 carry an overround of 4.38% (margin 4.19%). Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 71.0% / 29.0% and fair odds of 1.41 / 3.44. The calculator above starts from these prices and shows every method side by side.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied | Fair probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fighter A | 1.35 | 74.1% | 71.0% | 1.41 |
| Fighter B | 3.30 | 30.3% | 29.0% | 3.44 |
Method choice
In this 2-way market, with prices this close, the methods agree closely. Differences appear when one side is a heavy favourite; then the power and Shin columns are the ones to trust for the outsider's fair price.
Frequently asked questions
What is a normal overround for MMA Fight winner?
Between 4% and 8% at most bookmakers. Lower means a sharper book; multi-way fields run higher.
Which devig method should I use for MMA Fight winner?
With 2 outcomes priced close together the methods agree. When one outcome is a heavy favourite or the field is large, power or Shin better model where the margin sits; worst case gives the most conservative probability.
What are the fair odds for the sample prices?
The sample prices 1.35 / 3.30 carry an overround of 4.38%. Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 71.0% / 29.0% and fair odds of 1.41 / 3.44.
Can I use the fair probability to size a bet?
Yes: enter it with an offered price in the EV & Kelly calculator, or use the devig calculator's price-check panel, which reports edge and Kelly stake for each method.