NBA Moneyline: arbitrage calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–5%
- Sample arbitrage return
- -1.67%
- Profit on every outcome
- -1.67
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 101.70%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Favorite | 1.440 | 1.440 | 68.28 |
| Back Underdog | 3.100 | 3.100 | 31.72 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Favorite | 98.33 | 0.00 | -1.67 |
| Underdog | Underdog | 98.33 | 0.00 | -1.67 |
No arbitrage: -1.67% return
NBA moneylines move quickly with injury news and rest decisions, and favourites can be very short. Compare prices close to tip-off, when lineups are known.
Market structure
NBA Moneyline has 2 outcomes (
Favorite, Underdog). Bookmakers typically price it with an overround between 3% and
5%. For an arbitrage you need prices from at least two books whose implied probabilities, taken at the best price per outcome, add up to less than 100%.
Worked example
Two books quote 1.40 / 3.10 and 1.44 / 3.00. Taking the best price for each outcome (1.44 / 3.10) gives an implied sum of 101.70%. Arbitrage: no, return -1.67%. The calculator above is pre-filled with those best prices; the stakes for 100 in total are 68.28 / 31.72.
| Outcome | Book A | Book B | Best | Stake of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.40 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 68.28 |
| Underdog | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 31.72 |
Two-way specifics
Two-way markets are the simplest to arbitrage: two prices, two stakes, one check that the implied probabilities sum below 100%. Watch for different settlement rules between books (retirements, postponements).
Frequently asked questions
How many legs does a NBA Moneyline arbitrage need?
One per outcome: 2 legs covering Favorite, Underdog. Every outcome must be backed for the position to profit whatever happens.
How large is the overround in NBA Moneyline?
Typically 3% to 5% at a single book. An arbitrage needs the best prices across books to sum below 100%, so the gap between books has to exceed the margin.
Is the worked example on this page a real arbitrage?
The sample prices give an implied sum of 101.70% at the best price per outcome (arbitrage: no). They are illustrative; live prices change constantly.
What can go wrong with an arbitrage across 2 outcomes?
A leg not being available at the assumed price, a void or push on one leg, different settlement rules between books, and stake limits that stop you placing the full amount.