NBA Moneyline: devig calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–5%
- Sample overround
- 3.69%
- Worst-case probabilities are per-outcome minimums and do not add up to 100%.
| Outcome | Multiplicative | Additive | Powerk = 1.062 | Shinz = 0.037 | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 68.89%1.452 | 69.59%1.437 | 69.94%1.430 | 69.59%1.437 | 68.89%1.452 |
| Outcome 2 | 31.11%3.214 | 30.41%3.288 | 30.06%3.327 | 30.41%3.288 | 30.06%3.327 |
- Overround
- 3.69%
- Margin
- 3.56%
- Outcomes
- 2
Overround 3.69%
NBA moneylines move quickly with injury news and rest decisions, and favourites can be very short. Compare prices close to tip-off, when lineups are known.
Overround in this market
NBA Moneyline has 2 outcomes (
Favorite, Underdog). Bookmakers usually price it with an overround between 3% and 5%. Sharper books sit at the low end; recreational books and multi-way fields at the high end.
Worked example
Sample prices of 1.40 / 3.10 carry an overround of 3.69% (margin 3.56%). Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 68.9% / 31.1% and fair odds of 1.45 / 3.21. The calculator above starts from these prices and shows every method side by side.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied | Fair probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.40 | 71.4% | 68.9% | 1.45 |
| Underdog | 3.10 | 32.3% | 31.1% | 3.21 |
Method choice
In this 2-way market, with prices this close, the methods agree closely. Differences appear when one side is a heavy favourite; then the power and Shin columns are the ones to trust for the outsider's fair price.
Frequently asked questions
What is a normal overround for NBA Moneyline?
Between 3% and 5% at most bookmakers. Lower means a sharper book; multi-way fields run higher.
Which devig method should I use for NBA Moneyline?
With 2 outcomes priced close together the methods agree. When one outcome is a heavy favourite or the field is large, power or Shin better model where the margin sits; worst case gives the most conservative probability.
What are the fair odds for the sample prices?
The sample prices 1.40 / 3.10 carry an overround of 3.69%. Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 68.9% / 31.1% and fair odds of 1.45 / 3.21.
Can I use the fair probability to size a bet?
Yes: enter it with an offered price in the EV & Kelly calculator, or use the devig calculator's price-check panel, which reports edge and Kelly stake for each method.