NFL Moneyline: arbitrage calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–5%
- Sample arbitrage return
- -2.11%
- Profit on every outcome
- -2.11
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 102.16%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Favorite | 1.570 | 1.570 | 62.35 |
| Back Underdog | 2.600 | 2.600 | 37.65 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Favorite | 97.89 | 0.00 | -2.11 |
| Underdog | Underdog | 97.89 | 0.00 | -2.11 |
No arbitrage: -2.11% return
The NFL moneyline is a two-way market on the winner; ties are rare and usually void the bet. Favourites are often heavily backed by the public, which pushes underdog prices out at recreational books.
Market structure
NFL Moneyline has 2 outcomes (
Favorite, Underdog). Bookmakers typically price it with an overround between 3% and
5%. For an arbitrage you need prices from at least two books whose implied probabilities, taken at the best price per outcome, add up to less than 100%.
Worked example
Two books quote 1.53 / 2.60 and 1.57 / 2.55. Taking the best price for each outcome (1.57 / 2.60) gives an implied sum of 102.16%. Arbitrage: no, return -2.11%. The calculator above is pre-filled with those best prices; the stakes for 100 in total are 62.35 / 37.65.
| Outcome | Book A | Book B | Best | Stake of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.53 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 62.35 |
| Underdog | 2.60 | 2.55 | 2.60 | 37.65 |
Two-way specifics
Two-way markets are the simplest to arbitrage: two prices, two stakes, one check that the implied probabilities sum below 100%. Watch for different settlement rules between books (retirements, postponements).
Frequently asked questions
How many legs does a NFL Moneyline arbitrage need?
One per outcome: 2 legs covering Favorite, Underdog. Every outcome must be backed for the position to profit whatever happens.
How large is the overround in NFL Moneyline?
Typically 3% to 5% at a single book. An arbitrage needs the best prices across books to sum below 100%, so the gap between books has to exceed the margin.
Is the worked example on this page a real arbitrage?
The sample prices give an implied sum of 102.16% at the best price per outcome (arbitrage: no). They are illustrative; live prices change constantly.
What can go wrong with an arbitrage across 2 outcomes?
A leg not being available at the assumed price, a void or push on one leg, different settlement rules between books, and stake limits that stop you placing the full amount.