NFL Moneyline: devig calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–5%
- Sample overround
- 3.82%
- Worst-case probabilities are per-outcome minimums and do not add up to 100%.
| Outcome | Multiplicative | Additive | Powerk = 1.061 | Shinz = 0.038 | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 62.95%1.588 | 63.45%1.576 | 63.70%1.570 | 63.45%1.576 | 62.95%1.588 |
| Outcome 2 | 37.05%2.699 | 36.55%2.736 | 36.30%2.755 | 36.55%2.736 | 36.30%2.755 |
- Overround
- 3.82%
- Margin
- 3.68%
- Outcomes
- 2
Overround 3.82%
The NFL moneyline is a two-way market on the winner; ties are rare and usually void the bet. Favourites are often heavily backed by the public, which pushes underdog prices out at recreational books.
Overround in this market
NFL Moneyline has 2 outcomes (
Favorite, Underdog). Bookmakers usually price it with an overround between 3% and 5%. Sharper books sit at the low end; recreational books and multi-way fields at the high end.
Worked example
Sample prices of 1.53 / 2.60 carry an overround of 3.82% (margin 3.68%). Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 63.0% / 37.0% and fair odds of 1.59 / 2.70. The calculator above starts from these prices and shows every method side by side.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied | Fair probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.53 | 65.4% | 63.0% | 1.59 |
| Underdog | 2.60 | 38.5% | 37.0% | 2.70 |
Method choice
In this 2-way market, with prices this close, the methods agree closely. Differences appear when one side is a heavy favourite; then the power and Shin columns are the ones to trust for the outsider's fair price.
Frequently asked questions
What is a normal overround for NFL Moneyline?
Between 3% and 5% at most bookmakers. Lower means a sharper book; multi-way fields run higher.
Which devig method should I use for NFL Moneyline?
With 2 outcomes priced close together the methods agree. When one outcome is a heavy favourite or the field is large, power or Shin better model where the margin sits; worst case gives the most conservative probability.
What are the fair odds for the sample prices?
The sample prices 1.53 / 2.60 carry an overround of 3.82%. Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 63.0% / 37.0% and fair odds of 1.59 / 2.70.
Can I use the fair probability to size a bet?
Yes: enter it with an offered price in the EV & Kelly calculator, or use the devig calculator's price-check panel, which reports edge and Kelly stake for each method.