NHL Moneyline: arbitrage calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–5%
- Sample arbitrage return
- -2.03%
- Profit on every outcome
- -2.03
- Total stake
- 100.00
- Sum of implied probabilities
- 102.07%
| Leg | Odds used | Effective odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back Favorite | 1.800 | 1.800 | 54.43 |
| Back Underdog | 2.150 | 2.150 | 45.57 |
| If this wins | Legs that pay | Gross return | Commission | Net profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Favorite | 97.97 | 0.00 | -2.03 |
| Underdog | Underdog | 97.97 | 0.00 | -2.03 |
No arbitrage: -2.03% return
NHL moneylines include overtime and the shootout, so the market is two-way. Some books also offer a three-way regulation-time market; do not mix the two when looking for arbitrage.
Market structure
NHL Moneyline has 2 outcomes (
Favorite, Underdog). Bookmakers typically price it with an overround between 3% and
5%. For an arbitrage you need prices from at least two books whose implied probabilities, taken at the best price per outcome, add up to less than 100%.
Worked example
Two books quote 1.75 / 2.15 and 1.80 / 2.10. Taking the best price for each outcome (1.80 / 2.15) gives an implied sum of 102.07%. Arbitrage: no, return -2.03%. The calculator above is pre-filled with those best prices; the stakes for 100 in total are 54.43 / 45.57.
| Outcome | Book A | Book B | Best | Stake of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 54.43 |
| Underdog | 2.15 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 45.57 |
Two-way specifics
Two-way markets are the simplest to arbitrage: two prices, two stakes, one check that the implied probabilities sum below 100%. Watch for different settlement rules between books (retirements, postponements).
Frequently asked questions
How many legs does a NHL Moneyline arbitrage need?
One per outcome: 2 legs covering Favorite, Underdog. Every outcome must be backed for the position to profit whatever happens.
How large is the overround in NHL Moneyline?
Typically 3% to 5% at a single book. An arbitrage needs the best prices across books to sum below 100%, so the gap between books has to exceed the margin.
Is the worked example on this page a real arbitrage?
The sample prices give an implied sum of 102.07% at the best price per outcome (arbitrage: no). They are illustrative; live prices change constantly.
What can go wrong with an arbitrage across 2 outcomes?
A leg not being available at the assumed price, a void or push on one leg, different settlement rules between books, and stake limits that stop you placing the full amount.