NHL Moneyline: devig calculator
- Market
- 2-way
- Typical overround
- 3%–5%
- Sample overround
- 3.65%
- Worst-case probabilities are per-outcome minimums and do not add up to 100%.
| Outcome | Multiplicative | Additive | Powerk = 1.055 | Shinz = 0.037 | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 55.13%1.814 | 55.32%1.808 | 55.41%1.805 | 55.32%1.808 | 55.13%1.814 |
| Outcome 2 | 44.87%2.229 | 44.68%2.238 | 44.59%2.243 | 44.68%2.238 | 44.59%2.243 |
- Overround
- 3.65%
- Margin
- 3.53%
- Outcomes
- 2
Overround 3.65%
NHL moneylines include overtime and the shootout, so the market is two-way. Some books also offer a three-way regulation-time market; do not mix the two when looking for arbitrage.
Overround in this market
NHL Moneyline has 2 outcomes (
Favorite, Underdog). Bookmakers usually price it with an overround between 3% and 5%. Sharper books sit at the low end; recreational books and multi-way fields at the high end.
Worked example
Sample prices of 1.75 / 2.15 carry an overround of 3.65% (margin 3.53%). Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 55.1% / 44.9% and fair odds of 1.81 / 2.23. The calculator above starts from these prices and shows every method side by side.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied | Fair probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.75 | 57.1% | 55.1% | 1.81 |
| Underdog | 2.15 | 46.5% | 44.9% | 2.23 |
Method choice
In this 2-way market, with prices this close, the methods agree closely. Differences appear when one side is a heavy favourite; then the power and Shin columns are the ones to trust for the outsider's fair price.
Frequently asked questions
What is a normal overround for NHL Moneyline?
Between 3% and 5% at most bookmakers. Lower means a sharper book; multi-way fields run higher.
Which devig method should I use for NHL Moneyline?
With 2 outcomes priced close together the methods agree. When one outcome is a heavy favourite or the field is large, power or Shin better model where the margin sits; worst case gives the most conservative probability.
What are the fair odds for the sample prices?
The sample prices 1.75 / 2.15 carry an overround of 3.65%. Multiplicative devigging gives fair probabilities of 55.1% / 44.9% and fair odds of 1.81 / 2.23.
Can I use the fair probability to size a bet?
Yes: enter it with an offered price in the EV & Kelly calculator, or use the devig calculator's price-check panel, which reports edge and Kelly stake for each method.