Casino Bonus ROI Calculator
Expected value and ROI of a casino deposit bonus from bonus size, wagering requirement, game RTP and contribution. Bonus-only and bonus + deposit compared.
- Bonus received
- 100.00
- Turnover required
- 3,500.00
- Expected loss while wagering
- 140.00
- Expected balance after wagering
- 60.00
- ROI on deposit
- -40.00%
- Break-even RTP
- 97.14%
- Break-even wagering
- 25.0×
| Wagering applies to | Turnover | Expected loss | Expected value | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonus only | 3,500.00 | 140.00 | -40.00 | -40.00% |
| Bonus + deposit | 7,000.00 | 280.00 | -180.00 | -180.00% |
| RTP | Expected loss | Expected value | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | 350.00 | -250.00 | -250.00% |
| 92.0% | 280.00 | -180.00 | -180.00% |
| 94.0% | 210.00 | -110.00 | -110.00% |
| 95.0% | 175.00 | -75.00 | -75.00% |
| 96.0% | 140.00 | -40.00 | -40.00% |
| 97.0% | 105.00 | -5.00 | -5.00% |
| 98.0% | 70.00 | 30.00 | 30.00% |
| 99.0% | 35.00 | 65.00 | 65.00% |
Expected value -40.00, -40.00% on the deposit
How to use this calculator
Enter what you plan to deposit and the terms of the offer: the bonus percentage (100% means the casino matches your deposit), the maximum bonus if the offer has one, and the wagering requirement as a multiple such as 35×. Choose whether the multiple applies to the bonus only or to the bonus + deposit, since casinos write it both ways and the difference doubles the turnover. Then enter the RTP of the game you will play and, if it is not a slot, how much of each stake counts towards the requirement.
The headline is the expected value of taking the bonus: what you gain on average, after the money you expect to lose while playing through the requirement. The comparison table shows the same offer under both wagering bases, and the RTP table shows how the result moves with the game you pick.
Reading the results
- Bonus received is
deposit × bonus %, limited by the maximum bonus. - Turnover required is
wagering × bonusorwagering × (bonus + deposit). - Money actually staked appears when the game contributes less than 100%: a 10% contribution means you must stake ten times the turnover.
- Expected loss is
money staked × (1 − RTP). The house edge is charged on every spin, so the more you must wager the more you expect to lose. - Expected value is
bonus − expected loss. Positive means the bonus is worth more than it costs to unlock; negative means you are paying for it. - ROI on deposit is the expected value divided by what you put in.
- Break-even RTP is the game RTP at which the expected value is exactly zero. A game above it makes the bonus worth taking.
- Break-even wagering is the largest multiple at which the bonus still breaks even on this game.
Bonus only vs bonus + deposit
A 100% bonus on a 100 deposit with 35× wagering means 3,500 of turnover if the requirement is on the bonus alone, and 7,000 if it is on bonus + deposit. On a 96% slot the expected loss is 140 in the first case and 280 in the second, so the same "100% bonus" is worth −40 or −180. Always check which base the terms use before comparing offers.
Game contribution
Casinos weight games differently: slots usually count 100%, while table games, live casino and video poker often count 10% or less, and some games are excluded outright. A 99.5% blackjack game at 10% contribution needs ten times the stakes of a slot, which more than cancels its better RTP. The calculator applies the contribution before the house edge so you can compare a high-RTP table game with a slot on equal terms.
Frequently asked questions
Why is the expected value negative on most bonuses?
Because the wagering requirement is designed to be larger than the bonus divided by the house edge. At 35× bonus on a 96% slot you expect to lose 1.4 times the bonus before you can withdraw. A bonus only has positive expected value when the multiple is low, the RTP is high, or both.
Which RTP should I enter?
The RTP the game reports in its rules, not a session result. If the casino offers several RTP settings for the same slot, use the one shown in the paytable at that casino. RTP figures are third-party facts; check the game itself.
Does the calculator model sticky bonuses?
No. It assumes a cashable bonus that becomes yours once the requirement is met. With a sticky (non-withdrawable) bonus the bonus itself is forfeited at withdrawal, so subtract the bonus from the expected balance to get a rough answer, and expect the real value to be lower still.
Does it account for going bust before finishing the wagering?
No. The expected value is the long-run average, assuming you play the full requirement at a constant RTP. Slot variance is high, so many attempts end early with the whole balance lost and a few end well above average. The average is still the right number for deciding whether an offer is worth taking repeatedly, but any single attempt can land far from it.
What about maximum bet rules, time limits and game restrictions?
They are part of the terms but not of this calculation. A maximum bet rule limits how fast you can clear the requirement, a time limit can make it impossible, and excluded games do not count at all. Read the terms; the calculator only prices the requirement itself.
Can I use it for sports betting bonuses?
Yes, if you replace RTP with the payout rate of the bets you would place. A bettor who loses 5% of turnover on average is playing at a 95% RTP. Minimum-odds rules on sports bonuses are not modelled.