-2950 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 1.03
- American
- -2,950
- Fractional
- 2/59
- Implied probability
- 96.72%
- Polymarket
- 97¢
- $100 wins
- 3.39
- American
- -2,950
- Fractional
- 2/59
- Implied probability
- 96.72%
- Polymarket
- 97¢
- Profit
- 3.39
- Total return
- 103.39
1.034 decimal, -2,950 American, 96.72% implied probability
The price -2950 converts to 1.03 decimal odds and 2/59 fractional odds. Read as a probability it says the bookmaker prices this outcome at 96.72%, which is the share of the time you would need to win just to break even. A prediction market would quote the same chance as 97¢.
What -2950 pays
A 100 stake at -2950 returns 103.39 in total: your 100 back plus 3.39 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 2,950.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.34 | 10.34 |
| 25 | 0.85 | 25.85 |
| 50 | 1.69 | 51.69 |
| 100 | 3.39 | 103.39 |
| 500 | 16.95 | 516.95 |
| 1,000 | 33.90 | 1,033.90 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of -2950 is 96.72%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 96.72% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -48.3% |
| 55% | -43.1% |
| 60% | -38.0% |
| 65% | -32.8% |
| 97% | 0.3% |
A price of -2950 is deep odds-on. Bookmakers quote it when an outcome is close to a formality, and the margin they take is proportionally large at this end of the market. Sharp bettors tend to look at the other side of such a market, or at the exchange, where the same favourite is often available a tick or two better.
The vig at -2950
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -2950, the implied probabilities would add up to 93.44% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 48.31% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
-2950 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -2950 is worth 1.033 decimal (-3,010 American); at 5% it drops to 1.032 (-3,105). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.033 | -3,010 | 96.78% |
| 5% | 1.032 | -3,105 | 96.88% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does -2950 mean in betting?
-2950 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -2950 the implied probability is 96.72% and a 100 stake returns 103.39.
What is -2950 in decimal odds?
-2950 converts to 1.034 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.03). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.034 to get the return.
What is -2950 as a fraction?
-2950 is 2/59 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at -2950?
A 100 stake at -2950 wins 3.39 in profit and returns 103.39 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 2,950.00.
What win rate do I need at -2950?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 96.72%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.