-400 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 1.25
- American
- -400
- Fractional
- 1/4
- Implied probability
- 80.00%
- Polymarket
- 80¢
- $100 wins
- 25.00
- American
- -400
- Fractional
- 1/4
- Implied probability
- 80.00%
- Polymarket
- 80¢
- Profit
- 25.00
- Total return
- 125.00
1.250 decimal, -400 American, 80.00% implied probability
The price -400 converts to 1.25 decimal odds and 1/4 fractional odds. Read as a probability it says the bookmaker prices this outcome at 80.00%, which is the share of the time you would need to win just to break even. A prediction market would quote the same chance as 80¢.
What -400 pays
A 100 stake at -400 returns 125.00 in total: your 100 back plus 25.00 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 400.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.50 | 12.50 |
| 25 | 6.25 | 31.25 |
| 50 | 12.50 | 62.50 |
| 100 | 25.00 | 125.00 |
| 500 | 125.00 | 625.00 |
| 1,000 | 250.00 | 1,250.00 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of -400 is 80.00%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 80.00% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -37.5% |
| 55% | -31.2% |
| 60% | -25.0% |
| 65% | -18.7% |
| 80% | 0.0% |
A price of -400 is deep odds-on. Bookmakers quote it when an outcome is close to a formality, and the margin they take is proportionally large at this end of the market. Sharp bettors tend to look at the other side of such a market, or at the exchange, where the same favourite is often available a tick or two better.
The vig at -400
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -400, the implied probabilities would add up to 60.00% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 37.50% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
-400 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -400 is worth 1.245 decimal (-408 American); at 5% it drops to 1.238 (-421). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.245 | -408 | 80.32% |
| 5% | 1.238 | -421 | 80.81% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
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Frequently asked questions
What does -400 mean in betting?
-400 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -400 the implied probability is 80.00% and a 100 stake returns 125.00.
What is -400 in decimal odds?
-400 converts to 1.250 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.25). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.250 to get the return.
What is -400 as a fraction?
-400 is 1/4 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at -400?
A 100 stake at -400 wins 25.00 in profit and returns 125.00 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 400.00.
What win rate do I need at -400?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 80.00%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.