-4000 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 1.03
- American
- -4,000
- Fractional
- 1/40
- Implied probability
- 97.56%
- Polymarket
- 98¢
- $100 wins
- 2.50
- American
- -4,000
- Fractional
- 1/40
- Implied probability
- 97.56%
- Polymarket
- 98¢
- Profit
- 2.50
- Total return
- 102.50
1.025 decimal, -4,000 American, 97.56% implied probability
-4000 is an American price:
the minus sign marks a favourite, and the number is the stake needed to win 100
. Every other format describes the same chance: 1.03 decimal, 1/40 fractional, 97.56% implied probability, 98¢ on Polymarket.
What -4000 pays
A 100 stake at -4000 returns 102.50 in total: your 100 back plus 2.50 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 4,000.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.25 | 10.25 |
| 25 | 0.62 | 25.62 |
| 50 | 1.25 | 51.25 |
| 100 | 2.50 | 102.50 |
| 500 | 12.50 | 512.50 |
| 1,000 | 25.00 | 1,025.00 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of -4000 is 97.56%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 97.56% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -48.8% |
| 55% | -43.6% |
| 60% | -38.5% |
| 65% | -33.4% |
| 98% | 0.4% |
A price of -4000 is deep odds-on. Bookmakers quote it when an outcome is close to a formality, and the margin they take is proportionally large at this end of the market. Sharp bettors tend to look at the other side of such a market, or at the exchange, where the same favourite is often available a tick or two better.
The vig at -4000
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -4000, the implied probabilities would add up to 95.12% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 48.75% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
-4000 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -4000 is worth 1.025 decimal (-4,082 American); at 5% it drops to 1.024 (-4,211). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.025 | -4,082 | 97.61% |
| 5% | 1.024 | -4,211 | 97.68% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does -4000 mean in betting?
-4000 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -4000 the implied probability is 97.56% and a 100 stake returns 102.50.
What is -4000 in decimal odds?
-4000 converts to 1.025 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.03). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.025 to get the return.
What is -4000 as a fraction?
-4000 is 1/40 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at -4000?
A 100 stake at -4000 wins 2.50 in profit and returns 102.50 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 4,000.00.
What win rate do I need at -4000?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 97.56%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.