-409 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 1.24
- American
- -409
- Fractional
- 11/45
- Implied probability
- 80.35%
- Polymarket
- 80¢
- $100 wins
- 24.45
- The fraction shown is the closest simple fraction to the odds rounded to 3 decimals, not an exact match.
- American
- -409
- Fractional
- 11/45
- Implied probability
- 80.35%
- Polymarket
- 80¢
- Profit
- 24.45
- Total return
- 124.45
1.244 decimal, -409 American, 80.35% implied probability
-409 is an American price:
the minus sign marks a favourite, and the number is the stake needed to win 100
. Every other format describes the same chance: 1.24 decimal, 11/45 fractional, 80.35% implied probability, 80¢ on Polymarket.
What -409 pays
A 100 stake at -409 returns 124.45 in total: your 100 back plus 24.45 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 409.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.44 | 12.44 |
| 25 | 6.11 | 31.11 |
| 50 | 12.22 | 62.22 |
| 100 | 24.45 | 124.45 |
| 500 | 122.25 | 622.25 |
| 1,000 | 244.50 | 1,244.50 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of -409 is 80.35%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 80.35% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -37.8% |
| 55% | -31.6% |
| 60% | -25.3% |
| 65% | -19.1% |
| 80% | -0.4% |
At 80.35% this is a heavy favourite. Prices this short appear when one side is expected to win comfortably: a top seed against a qualifier, a strong home team against a relegation candidate, or a moneyline in a game with a double-digit spread. The catch is the payout. You need to win more than 80.35% of these bets just to stand still, and one loss wipes out several wins.
The vig at -409
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -409, the implied probabilities would add up to 60.71% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 37.78% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
-409 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -409 is worth 1.240 decimal (-417 American); at 5% it drops to 1.232 (-431). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.240 | -417 | 80.67% |
| 5% | 1.232 | -431 | 81.15% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does -409 mean in betting?
-409 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -409 the implied probability is 80.35% and a 100 stake returns 124.45.
What is -409 in decimal odds?
-409 converts to 1.244 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.24). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.244 to get the return.
What is -409 as a fraction?
-409 is 11/45 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at -409?
A 100 stake at -409 wins 24.45 in profit and returns 124.45 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 409.00.
What win rate do I need at -409?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 80.35%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.