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-413 Odds Explained

Decimal
1.24
American
-413
Fractional
23/95
Implied probability
80.51%
Polymarket
81¢
$100 wins
24.21
Inputs
Results
Decimal odds1.242
  • The fraction shown is the closest simple fraction to the odds rounded to 3 decimals, not an exact match.
American
-413
Fractional
23/95
Implied probability
80.51%
Polymarket
81¢
Profit
24.21
Total return
124.21

1.242 decimal, -413 American, 80.51% implied probability

-413 is an American price:

the minus sign marks a favourite, and the number is the stake needed to win 100

. Every other format describes the same chance: 1.24 decimal, 23/95 fractional, 80.51% implied probability, 81¢ on Polymarket.

What -413 pays

A 100 stake at -413 returns 124.21 in total: your 100 back plus 24.21 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 413.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.

Payout by stake
StakeProfitTotal return
102.4212.42
256.0531.05
5012.1162.11
10024.21124.21
500121.07621.07
1,000242.131,242.13

Break-even and long-run results

The implied probability of -413 is 80.51%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 80.51% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.

Return on stake by long-run win rate
Win rateReturn on stake
50%-37.9%
55%-31.7%
60%-25.5%
65%-19.3%
81%0.6%

A price of -413 is deep odds-on. Bookmakers quote it when an outcome is close to a formality, and the margin they take is proportionally large at this end of the market. Sharp bettors tend to look at the other side of such a market, or at the exchange, where the same favourite is often available a tick or two better.

The vig at -413

If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -413, the implied probabilities would add up to 61.01% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 37.89% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.

-413 on a betting exchange

Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -413 is worth 1.237 decimal (-421 American); at 5% it drops to 1.230 (-435). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.

Effective odds on an exchange
CommissionEffective decimalEffective AmericanBreak-even
2%1.237-42180.82%
5%1.230-43581.30%

Same price in other formats

Same price in other formats

Nearby prices

Nearby prices

  • -423 · 1.24 · 80.9%
  • -418 · 1.24 · 80.7%
  • -415 · 1.24 · 80.6%
  • -414 · 1.24 · 80.5%
  • -412 · 1.24 · 80.5%
  • -411 · 1.24 · 80.4%
  • -408 · 1.25 · 80.3%
  • -403 · 1.25 · 80.1%

Frequently asked questions

What does -413 mean in betting?

-413 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -413 the implied probability is 80.51% and a 100 stake returns 124.21.

What is -413 in decimal odds?

-413 converts to 1.242 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.24). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.242 to get the return.

What is -413 as a fraction?

-413 is 23/95 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.

How much do I win on a 100 bet at -413?

A 100 stake at -413 wins 24.21 in profit and returns 124.21 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 413.00.

What win rate do I need at -413?

The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 80.51%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.