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-476 Odds Explained

Decimal
1.21
American
-476
Fractional
21/100
Implied probability
82.64%
Polymarket
83¢
$100 wins
21.01
Inputs
Results
Decimal odds1.210
  • The fraction shown is the closest simple fraction to the odds rounded to 3 decimals, not an exact match.
American
-476
Fractional
21/100
Implied probability
82.64%
Polymarket
83¢
Profit
21.01
Total return
121.01

1.210 decimal, -476 American, 82.64% implied probability

-476 is an American price:

the minus sign marks a favourite, and the number is the stake needed to win 100

. Every other format describes the same chance: 1.21 decimal, 21/100 fractional, 82.64% implied probability, 83¢ on Polymarket.

What -476 pays

A 100 stake at -476 returns 121.01 in total: your 100 back plus 21.01 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 476.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.

Payout by stake
StakeProfitTotal return
102.1012.10
255.2530.25
5010.5060.50
10021.01121.01
500105.04605.04
1,000210.081,210.08

Break-even and long-run results

The implied probability of -476 is 82.64%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 82.64% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.

Return on stake by long-run win rate
Win rateReturn on stake
50%-39.5%
55%-33.4%
60%-27.4%
65%-21.3%
83%0.4%

At 82.64% this is a heavy favourite. Prices this short appear when one side is expected to win comfortably: a top seed against a qualifier, a strong home team against a relegation candidate, or a moneyline in a game with a double-digit spread. The catch is the payout. You need to win more than 82.64% of these bets just to stand still, and one loss wipes out several wins.

The vig at -476

If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -476, the implied probabilities would add up to 65.28% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 39.50% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.

-476 on a betting exchange

Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -476 is worth 1.206 decimal (-486 American); at 5% it drops to 1.200 (-501). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.

Effective odds on an exchange
CommissionEffective decimalEffective AmericanBreak-even
2%1.206-48682.93%
5%1.200-50183.36%

Same price in other formats

Same price in other formats

Nearby prices

Nearby prices

  • -486 · 1.21 · 82.9%
  • -481 · 1.21 · 82.8%
  • -478 · 1.21 · 82.7%
  • -477 · 1.21 · 82.7%
  • -475 · 1.21 · 82.6%
  • -474 · 1.21 · 82.6%
  • -471 · 1.21 · 82.5%
  • -466 · 1.21 · 82.3%

Frequently asked questions

What does -476 mean in betting?

-476 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -476 the implied probability is 82.64% and a 100 stake returns 121.01.

What is -476 in decimal odds?

-476 converts to 1.210 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.21). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.210 to get the return.

What is -476 as a fraction?

-476 is 21/100 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.

How much do I win on a 100 bet at -476?

A 100 stake at -476 wins 21.01 in profit and returns 121.01 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 476.00.

What win rate do I need at -476?

The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 82.64%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.