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-493 Odds Explained

Decimal
1.20
American
-493
Fractional
14/69
Implied probability
83.14%
Polymarket
83¢
$100 wins
20.28
Inputs
Results
Decimal odds1.203
  • The fraction shown is the closest simple fraction to the odds rounded to 3 decimals, not an exact match.
American
-493
Fractional
14/69
Implied probability
83.14%
Polymarket
83¢
Profit
20.28
Total return
120.28

1.203 decimal, -493 American, 83.14% implied probability

American odds of -493 mean

you risk 493 to win 100

. In decimal notation that is 1.20, in fractional notation 14/69, and the implied probability is 83.14%. On a prediction market the same price is a 83¢ share.

What -493 pays

A 100 stake at -493 returns 120.28 in total: your 100 back plus 20.28 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 493.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.

Payout by stake
StakeProfitTotal return
102.0312.03
255.0730.07
5010.1460.14
10020.28120.28
500101.42601.42
1,000202.841,202.84

Break-even and long-run results

The implied probability of -493 is 83.14%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 83.14% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.

Return on stake by long-run win rate
Win rateReturn on stake
50%-39.9%
55%-33.8%
60%-27.8%
65%-21.8%
83%-0.2%

A price of -493 is deep odds-on. Bookmakers quote it when an outcome is close to a formality, and the margin they take is proportionally large at this end of the market. Sharp bettors tend to look at the other side of such a market, or at the exchange, where the same favourite is often available a tick or two better.

The vig at -493

If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -493, the implied probabilities would add up to 66.27% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 39.86% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.

-493 on a betting exchange

Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -493 is worth 1.199 decimal (-503 American); at 5% it drops to 1.193 (-519). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.

Effective odds on an exchange
CommissionEffective decimalEffective AmericanBreak-even
2%1.199-50383.42%
5%1.193-51983.84%

Same price in other formats

Same price in other formats

Nearby prices

Nearby prices

  • -515 · 1.19 · 83.7%
  • -498 · 1.20 · 83.3%
  • -495 · 1.20 · 83.2%
  • -494 · 1.20 · 83.2%
  • -492 · 1.20 · 83.1%
  • -491 · 1.20 · 83.1%
  • -488 · 1.20 · 83.0%
  • -483 · 1.21 · 82.8%

Frequently asked questions

What does -493 mean in betting?

-493 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -493 the implied probability is 83.14% and a 100 stake returns 120.28.

What is -493 in decimal odds?

-493 converts to 1.203 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.20). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.203 to get the return.

What is -493 as a fraction?

-493 is 14/69 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.

How much do I win on a 100 bet at -493?

A 100 stake at -493 wins 20.28 in profit and returns 120.28 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 493.00.

What win rate do I need at -493?

The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 83.14%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.