-499 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 1.20
- American
- -499
- Fractional
- 1/5
- Implied probability
- 83.31%
- Polymarket
- 83¢
- $100 wins
- 20.04
- The fraction shown is the closest simple fraction to the odds rounded to 3 decimals, not an exact match.
- American
- -499
- Fractional
- 1/5
- Implied probability
- 83.31%
- Polymarket
- 83¢
- Profit
- 20.04
- Total return
- 120.04
1.200 decimal, -499 American, 83.31% implied probability
American odds of -499 mean
you risk 499 to win 100
. In decimal notation that is 1.20, in fractional notation 1/5, and the implied probability is 83.31%. On a prediction market the same price is a 83¢ share.
What -499 pays
A 100 stake at -499 returns 120.04 in total: your 100 back plus 20.04 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 499.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| 25 | 5.01 | 30.01 |
| 50 | 10.02 | 60.02 |
| 100 | 20.04 | 120.04 |
| 500 | 100.20 | 600.20 |
| 1,000 | 200.40 | 1,200.40 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of -499 is 83.31%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 83.31% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -40.0% |
| 55% | -34.0% |
| 60% | -28.0% |
| 65% | -22.0% |
| 83% | -0.4% |
A price of -499 is deep odds-on. Bookmakers quote it when an outcome is close to a formality, and the margin they take is proportionally large at this end of the market. Sharp bettors tend to look at the other side of such a market, or at the exchange, where the same favourite is often available a tick or two better.
The vig at -499
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -499, the implied probabilities would add up to 66.61% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 39.98% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
-499 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -499 is worth 1.196 decimal (-509 American); at 5% it drops to 1.190 (-525). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.196 | -509 | 83.58% |
| 5% | 1.190 | -525 | 84.01% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does -499 mean in betting?
-499 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -499 the implied probability is 83.31% and a 100 stake returns 120.04.
What is -499 in decimal odds?
-499 converts to 1.200 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.20). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.200 to get the return.
What is -499 as a fraction?
-499 is 1/5 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at -499?
A 100 stake at -499 wins 20.04 in profit and returns 120.04 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 499.00.
What win rate do I need at -499?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 83.31%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.