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-525 Odds Explained

Decimal
1.19
American
-525
Fractional
4/21
Implied probability
84.00%
Polymarket
84¢
$100 wins
19.05
Inputs
Results
Decimal odds1.190
American
-525
Fractional
4/21
Implied probability
84.00%
Polymarket
84¢
Profit
19.05
Total return
119.05

1.190 decimal, -525 American, 84.00% implied probability

American odds of -525 mean

you risk 525 to win 100

. In decimal notation that is 1.19, in fractional notation 4/21, and the implied probability is 84.00%. On a prediction market the same price is a 84¢ share.

What -525 pays

A 100 stake at -525 returns 119.05 in total: your 100 back plus 19.05 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 525.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.

Payout by stake
StakeProfitTotal return
101.9011.90
254.7629.76
509.5259.52
10019.05119.05
50095.24595.24
1,000190.481,190.48

Break-even and long-run results

The implied probability of -525 is 84.00%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 84.00% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.

Return on stake by long-run win rate
Win rateReturn on stake
50%-40.5%
55%-34.5%
60%-28.6%
65%-22.6%
84%-0.0%

A price of -525 is deep odds-on. Bookmakers quote it when an outcome is close to a formality, and the margin they take is proportionally large at this end of the market. Sharp bettors tend to look at the other side of such a market, or at the exchange, where the same favourite is often available a tick or two better.

The vig at -525

If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -525, the implied probabilities would add up to 68.00% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 40.48% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.

-525 on a betting exchange

Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -525 is worth 1.187 decimal (-536 American); at 5% it drops to 1.181 (-553). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.

Effective odds on an exchange
CommissionEffective decimalEffective AmericanBreak-even
2%1.187-53684.27%
5%1.181-55384.68%

Same price in other formats

Same price in other formats

Nearby prices

Nearby prices

  • -575 · 1.17 · 85.2%
  • -550 · 1.18 · 84.6%
  • -535 · 1.19 · 84.3%
  • -530 · 1.19 · 84.1%
  • -520 · 1.19 · 83.9%
  • -515 · 1.19 · 83.7%
  • -500 · 1.20 · 83.3%
  • -495 · 1.20 · 83.2%

Frequently asked questions

What does -525 mean in betting?

-525 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -525 the implied probability is 84.00% and a 100 stake returns 119.05.

What is -525 in decimal odds?

-525 converts to 1.190 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.19). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.190 to get the return.

What is -525 as a fraction?

-525 is 4/21 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.

How much do I win on a 100 bet at -525?

A 100 stake at -525 wins 19.05 in profit and returns 119.05 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 525.00.

What win rate do I need at -525?

The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 84.00%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.