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+418 Odds Explained

Decimal
5.18
American
+418
Fractional
209/50
Implied probability
19.31%
Polymarket
19¢
$100 wins
418.00
Inputs
Results
Decimal odds5.180
American
+418
Fractional
209/50
Implied probability
19.31%
Polymarket
19¢
Profit
418.00
Total return
518.00

5.180 decimal, +418 American, 19.31% implied probability

The price +418 converts to 5.18 decimal odds and 209/50 fractional odds. Read as a probability it says the bookmaker prices this outcome at 19.31%, which is the share of the time you would need to win just to break even. A prediction market would quote the same chance as 19¢.

What +418 pays

A 100 stake at +418 returns 518.00 in total: your 100 back plus 418.00 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 23.92. The table covers the stakes people actually use.

Payout by stake
StakeProfitTotal return
1041.8051.80
25104.50129.50
50209.00259.00
100418.00518.00
5002,090.002,590.00
1,0004,180.005,180.00

Break-even and long-run results

The implied probability of +418 is 19.31%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 19.31% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.

Return on stake by long-run win rate
Win rateReturn on stake
19%-1.6%
50%159.0%
55%184.9%
60%210.8%
65%236.7%

+418 is a longshot. The bookmaker prices the outcome at 19.31%, and the payout of 418.00 per 100 staked is the compensation for how rarely it lands. Longshots carry more margin than any other part of the market, which is why devigging methods disagree most at prices like this one.

The vig at +418

If both sides of a two-way market were priced at +418, the implied probabilities would add up to -61.39% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a -159.00% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.

+418 on a betting exchange

Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission +418 is worth 5.096 decimal (+410 American); at 5% it drops to 4.971 (+397). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.

Effective odds on an exchange
CommissionEffective decimalEffective AmericanBreak-even
2%5.096+41019.62%
5%4.971+39720.12%

Same price in other formats

Nearby prices

Nearby prices

  • +408 · 5.08 · 19.7%
  • +413 · 5.13 · 19.5%
  • +416 · 5.16 · 19.4%
  • +417 · 5.17 · 19.3%
  • +419 · 5.19 · 19.3%
  • +420 · 5.20 · 19.2%
  • +423 · 5.23 · 19.1%
  • +428 · 5.28 · 18.9%

Frequently asked questions

What does +418 mean in betting?

+418 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At +418 the implied probability is 19.31% and a 100 stake returns 518.00.

What is +418 in decimal odds?

+418 converts to 5.180 in decimal odds (usually shown as 5.18). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 5.180 to get the return.

What is +418 as a fraction?

+418 is 209/50 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.

How much do I win on a 100 bet at +418?

A 100 stake at +418 wins 418.00 in profit and returns 518.00 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 23.92.

What win rate do I need at +418?

The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 19.31%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.