+499 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 5.99
- American
- +499
- Fractional
- 499/100
- Implied probability
- 16.69%
- Polymarket
- 17¢
- $100 wins
- 499.00
- American
- +499
- Fractional
- 499/100
- Implied probability
- 16.69%
- Polymarket
- 17¢
- Profit
- 499.00
- Total return
- 599.00
5.990 decimal, +499 American, 16.69% implied probability
The price +499 converts to 5.99 decimal odds and 499/100 fractional odds. Read as a probability it says the bookmaker prices this outcome at 16.69%, which is the share of the time you would need to win just to break even. A prediction market would quote the same chance as 17¢.
What +499 pays
A 100 stake at +499 returns 599.00 in total: your 100 back plus 499.00 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 20.04. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 49.90 | 59.90 |
| 25 | 124.75 | 149.75 |
| 50 | 249.50 | 299.50 |
| 100 | 499.00 | 599.00 |
| 500 | 2,495.00 | 2,995.00 |
| 1,000 | 4,990.00 | 5,990.00 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of +499 is 16.69%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 16.69% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 17% | 1.8% |
| 50% | 199.5% |
| 55% | 229.5% |
| 60% | 259.4% |
| 65% | 289.4% |
With an implied chance of 16.69%, a bet at +499 is expected to lose most of the time and to pay 499.00 on 100 when it does not. Outright markets, correct scores and big upsets are where these prices appear, and they are the prices bookmakers shade the hardest.
The vig at +499
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at +499, the implied probabilities would add up to -66.61% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a -199.50% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
+499 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission +499 is worth 5.890 decimal (+489 American); at 5% it drops to 5.741 (+474). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 5.890 | +489 | 16.98% |
| 5% | 5.741 | +474 | 17.42% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
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Frequently asked questions
What does +499 mean in betting?
+499 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At +499 the implied probability is 16.69% and a 100 stake returns 599.00.
What is +499 in decimal odds?
+499 converts to 5.990 in decimal odds (usually shown as 5.99). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 5.990 to get the return.
What is +499 as a fraction?
+499 is 499/100 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at +499?
A 100 stake at +499 wins 499.00 in profit and returns 599.00 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 20.04.
What win rate do I need at +499?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 16.69%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.