58¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 1.72
- American
- -138
- Fractional
- 21/29
- Implied probability
- 58.00%
- Polymarket
- 58¢
- $100 wins
- 72.41
- American
- -138
- Fractional
- 21/29
- Implied probability
- 58.00%
- Polymarket
- 58¢
- Profit
- 72.41
- Total return
- 172.41
1.724 decimal, -138 American, 58.00% implied probability
Buying at 58¢ means risking 58¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 1.72 (decimal odds) or -138 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 58.00% probability before fees.
What a 58¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 172.41, a profit of 72.41.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7.24 | 17.24 |
| 25 | 18.10 | 43.10 |
| 50 | 36.21 | 86.21 |
| 100 | 72.41 | 172.41 |
| 500 | 362.07 | 862.07 |
| 1,000 | 724.14 | 1,724.14 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 58.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 58.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -13.8% |
| 55% | -5.2% |
| 58% | -0.0% |
| 60% | 3.4% |
| 65% | 12.1% |
58¢ is a favourite's price on a prediction market, implying 58.00%. Compare it with a sportsbook's price on the same event: if the book offers better than -138 on the same side, or better than the complement on the other side, one of the two venues is mispriced.
Converting 58¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 58¢ is 58.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 1.724, which bookmakers would display as 1.72. American odds follow from the decimal price: a favourite, so −100 divided by (1.724 − 1) gives -138. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 21/29.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 58¢ the NO side should be near 42.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 1.710 decimal, at 5% 1.688. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.710 | -141 | 58.49% |
| 5% | 1.688 | -145 | 59.24% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 58¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 58¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 58.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 1.72 decimal or -138 American odds.
How do I convert 58¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 58¢ gives 1.724, shown as 1.72.
What is the NO price when YES is 58¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 42.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 58¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 58¢ the share is worth 1.72 decimal before fees and 1.710 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 58¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 58¢ shares, which pay 172.41 in total on a win: a profit of 72.41.