74¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 1.35
- American
- -285
- Fractional
- 13/37
- Implied probability
- 74.00%
- Polymarket
- 74¢
- $100 wins
- 35.14
- American
- -285
- Fractional
- 13/37
- Implied probability
- 74.00%
- Polymarket
- 74¢
- Profit
- 35.14
- Total return
- 135.14
1.351 decimal, -285 American, 74.00% implied probability
74¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 74.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 1.35, and from there the American price of -285.
What a 74¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 135.14, a profit of 35.14.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 3.51 | 13.51 |
| 25 | 8.78 | 33.78 |
| 50 | 17.57 | 67.57 |
| 100 | 35.14 | 135.14 |
| 500 | 175.68 | 675.68 |
| 1,000 | 351.35 | 1,351.35 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 74.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 74.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -32.4% |
| 55% | -25.7% |
| 60% | -18.9% |
| 65% | -12.2% |
| 74% | -0.0% |
74¢ is a favourite's price on a prediction market, implying 74.00%. Compare it with a sportsbook's price on the same event: if the book offers better than -285 on the same side, or better than the complement on the other side, one of the two venues is mispriced.
Converting 74¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 74¢ is 74.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 1.351, which bookmakers would display as 1.35. American odds follow from the decimal price: a favourite, so −100 divided by (1.351 − 1) gives -285. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 13/37.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 74¢ the NO side should be near 26.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 1.344 decimal, at 5% 1.334. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.344 | -290 | 74.39% |
| 5% | 1.334 | -300 | 74.97% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 74¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 74¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 74.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 1.35 decimal or -285 American odds.
How do I convert 74¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 74¢ gives 1.351, shown as 1.35.
What is the NO price when YES is 74¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 26.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 74¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 74¢ the share is worth 1.35 decimal before fees and 1.344 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 74¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 74¢ shares, which pay 135.14 in total on a win: a profit of 35.14.