81¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 1.23
- American
- -426
- Fractional
- 19/81
- Implied probability
- 81.00%
- Polymarket
- 81¢
- $100 wins
- 23.46
- American
- -426
- Fractional
- 19/81
- Implied probability
- 81.00%
- Polymarket
- 81¢
- Profit
- 23.46
- Total return
- 123.46
1.235 decimal, -426 American, 81.00% implied probability
Buying at 81¢ means risking 81¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 1.23 (decimal odds) or -426 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 81.00% probability before fees.
What an 81¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 123.46, a profit of 23.46.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.35 | 12.35 |
| 25 | 5.86 | 30.86 |
| 50 | 11.73 | 61.73 |
| 100 | 23.46 | 123.46 |
| 500 | 117.28 | 617.28 |
| 1,000 | 234.57 | 1,234.57 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 81.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 81.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -38.3% |
| 55% | -32.1% |
| 60% | -25.9% |
| 65% | -19.8% |
| 81% | 0.0% |
At 81¢ the market is confident: an implied chance of 81.00%. High-priced shares pay little and lose everything on an upset, which is why traders in this range care about the spread and about fees more than about the headline price.
Converting 81¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 81¢ is 81.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 1.235, which bookmakers would display as 1.23. American odds follow from the decimal price: a favourite, so −100 divided by (1.235 − 1) gives -426. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 19/81.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 81¢ the NO side should be near 19.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 1.230 decimal, at 5% 1.223. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.230 | -435 | 81.31% |
| 5% | 1.223 | -449 | 81.78% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does an 81¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 81¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 81.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 1.23 decimal or -426 American odds.
How do I convert 81¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 81¢ gives 1.235, shown as 1.23.
What is the NO price when YES is 81¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 19.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 81¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 81¢ the share is worth 1.23 decimal before fees and 1.230 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 81¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 81¢ shares, which pay 123.46 in total on a win: a profit of 23.46.