Cashout Calculator

How to use this calculator

Enter the odds you took, your stake and the cashout amount the bookmaker is offering (the full amount you would receive, stake included). The headline is the cashout odds: the price your bet effectively settles at if you accept. A stake of 100 at 3.00 cashed out for 150 has settled at 1.50, and the offer prices your selection as though it had a 50% chance of winning. If the bet sits at an exchange rather than a bookmaker, switch on with exchange commission under the odds and pick the exchange, or type your own rate: the return if it wins is then net of commission, and every figure on the page works from that net amount. Leave the switch off for a bookmaker bet.

To find out how much the bookmaker keeps, add the current odds on your selection as they stand now, and if you can, the other side of the market. Choose what that other side is: 2-way for one opposing price (match winner without a draw, over/under, a player prop), 3-way for the two other outcomes of a 1X2 market (if you backed the home team, the draw and the away win), or lay for the lay odds on your selection at an exchange, with the exchange's commission. Each back price on the other side has the same with exchange commission switch, so a hedge placed at an exchange is sized net of its commission. With the whole market entered the calculator removes the margin and works out the fair value of holding the bet to the end. With only your selection's price the margin is still inside the figure, so the calculator warns you that the real difference is a little smaller than shown. Open a worked example: 100 at 3.00, offered 150, with the selection now at 1.80 and the other side at 2.10.

Reading the results

• Cashout odds are offer / stake. Below 1.00 you are cashing out at a loss.
• Return if it wins is stake × odds. With commission on your bet it is the amount you would actually keep, and commission if it wins shows what the exchange would take.
• Implied win probability is offer / return if it wins: the chance the bookmaker's offer assigns to your selection. Its reciprocal is the implied current odds.
• Fair win probability comes from the current market. With both sides it is the implied probability of your selection with the overround removed; with one price it is simply 1 / current odds.
• Fair value of holding is fair probability × return if it wins, the expected value of letting the bet run.
• Holding vs cashout is the fair value minus the offer. Positive means holding has the higher expectation; the cashout is costing you that amount on average.
• Bookmaker margin on cashout is 1 − offer / fair value: the slice of your bet's fair value the bookmaker keeps for settling it early.
• Hedge stake is return if it wins / other side's odds. Backing the other side with that stake returns the same amount whichever way the event goes; profit locked by hedging is that return minus both stakes, and hedge vs cashout compares it with the offer. In a 3-way market there is one hedge stake per other outcome, return if it wins / that outcome's odds, and the total is shown too. For a lay the calculator shows the lay stake the exchange asks for and the liability it holds.

The options table lines up the three choices by outcome: cash out now, let it ride, or hedge yourself.

Why a cashout is usually negative expected value

A cashout is priced from the bookmaker's own live odds, which already include a margin, and the bookmaker then takes a further cut for the convenience of settling early. So you pay a margin twice: once when you placed the bet, and again when you cash out. On a 3.00 bet whose selection now trades at 1.80 against 2.10, the fair value of holding is about 161.54 but the offer is 150: the bookmaker keeps roughly 7% of what the bet is worth. Cashing out is only good business for you when the offer beats the fair value, which happens rarely, or when the current market has moved so far that the bookmaker's cashout engine has not caught up.

That said, expected value is an average over many bets. Locking in a profit you cannot afford to lose is a legitimate reason to accept a slightly worse price; the calculator shows the cost so you can decide with your eyes open.

Hedge vs cashout

If you can bet on the other side of the market, at another bookmaker or an exchange, you can usually lock in more than the cashout offers. The calculator sizes the hedge so that both outcomes return the same amount, then compares that locked profit with the offer. In the example above a hedge of 142.86 at 2.10 locks in 57.14, against 50 from the cashout.

In a 3-way market you back both other outcomes, each with return if it wins / its odds, so all three results leave you with the same amount. On a 3.00 bet whose market now reads 1.80 / 4.00 / 5.00 that is 75 on the draw and 60 on the away win, 135 in total, locking in 65.

Laying on an exchange is the cleanest hedge, because you bet against your own selection at one price instead of covering the rest of the market. The calculator sizes the lay stake so that both outcomes leave the same amount after commission: lay stake = return if it wins / (lay odds − commission rate), with commission on net winnings, which is how Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook charge. Laying at 1.90 with 5% commission against the same 3.00 bet takes a lay stake of 162.16, a liability of 145.95, and locks in 54.05. Pick the exchange or type your own rate; the rate is saved in your browser and shared with the commission calculator and the arbitrage calculator. A rate charged on turnover is applied to the liability, as in the arbitrage calculator.

Accumulators and partial cashouts

For an accumulator, enter the combined odds of the whole bet as the odds you took. The current odds on your selection are the product of the remaining legs' live odds, and the other side's odds are only meaningful when one leg remains, so use the single-price mode with the warning in mind. A partial cashout is the same calculation on the part being cashed out: scale the stake down to the share you are settling.

Frequently asked questions

What does "cashout odds" mean?

The odds your bet has effectively settled at: the cashout amount divided by your stake. A cashout of 150 on a 100 stake is a settled bet at 1.50, regardless of the odds you originally took.

How does the bookmaker decide the cashout amount?

From its own live odds on your selection. In simple terms the offer is return if it wins × current implied probability, minus a cut. Because the live odds carry a margin and the cut is a second margin, the offer is nearly always below the bet's fair value.

Why does the calculator want the odds on the other side?

Because a single price includes the bookmaker's margin. With both sides of the market the calculator can remove the overround and give a fair probability; with one side it can only tell you the bookmaker's own view, which flatters the cashout a little less than the truth.

Is cashing out ever right?

Yes, when the offer is above the fair value (rare, but it happens when a bookmaker's cashout lags a fast-moving market), when you cannot hedge elsewhere and you value certainty over the small expected loss, or when the bet is a larger share of your bankroll than you should have on one outcome. What the calculator adds is the price tag on that certainty.

Does the hedge need the same stake as the original bet?

No. The hedge stake is return if it wins / other side's odds, so it depends on the odds now, not on what you staked. It can be larger than your original stake when your selection has become a strong favourite.

Does this include exchange commission or a second bookmaker's margin?

Back odds on the other side are used as entered, so a second bookmaker's margin is already inside them. If one of them is an exchange price, switch on with exchange commission under it: that outcome's hedge stake becomes return if it wins / (1 + (odds − 1) × (1 − rate)), so the same cash is left after commission. In the 3-way example, 5% on the 4.00 price makes that stake 77.92 instead of 75 and the hedge locks in 62.08 instead of 65. For a lay, switch the other side to lay and pick the exchange: its commission is deducted from the hedge's winnings before the locked profit is shown, and the fair value treats the lay price as a back on the rest of the market at L / (L − 1).

If the bet itself is on an exchange, choose the exchange under commission on your bet. A stake of 100 at 3.00 with 5% commission returns 290 rather than 300, so the offer of 150 implies 51.7% instead of 50%, the fair value against 1.80 / 2.10 is 156.15 instead of 161.54, and the hedge locks in 51.90 instead of 57.14. A rate charged on turnover is deducted from the winning return only.

What do I enter for a 3-way market?

The current odds on the two outcomes you did not back. If you backed the home team in a 1X2 market, that is the draw and the away win. The fair value then removes the overround of all three prices, and the hedge covers both outcomes with one stake each.