Hedge Calculator

How to use this calculator

Enter the odds you took and your stake. Then describe the rest of the market: 2-way for one opposing price (match winner without a draw, over/under, a player prop), 3-way for the two other outcomes of a 1X2 market (if you backed the home team, the draw and the away win), or lay for the lay odds on your selection at an exchange. Type the odds on offer now for each of those, and the calculator sizes the hedge. Open a worked example: 100 at 3.00, with the other side now at 2.10.

By default every outcome is set to equal profit, so the stakes it returns leave you the same amount whichever way the event goes. Under hedge stakes you can change that per outcome: break even makes that outcome a ±0 result, and target profit lets you name the profit you want if it happens. At least one outcome stays on equal profit, because the last one always follows from the others. If you would rather test stakes of your own, switch to enter them and type a stake per hedge bet; the table then shows what each outcome leaves you.

If the bet, or one of the hedge prices, sits at an exchange, switch on with exchange commission under it and pick the exchange or type your rate. The lay always has a commission picker. Rates are saved in your browser and shared with the commission and arbitrage calculators.

Reading the results

• Locked profit is the headline when every outcome pays the same. Otherwise the headline is the worst outcome, with the best one underneath.
• Return if your bet wins is stake × odds, net of the bet's own commission if it has one. Every hedge stake is worked from this amount.
• Hedge stake is what to place on the other side. In a 3-way market there is one per other outcome and a total; for a lay the calculator shows the lay stake the exchange asks for and the liability it holds.
• Total outlay is your original stake plus every hedge stake (the liability for a lay): the money you have tied up in the position.
• The outcome table lists each way the event can go, which bet pays, the gross return, the commission, and the net profit across all your bets.

Equal profit, break even or a target

With everything on equal profit the hedge stake on a two-way market is return / other side's odds. On 100 at 3.00 against 2.10, that is 300 / 2.10 = 142.86, and both outcomes leave 57.14: if your bet wins you collect 300 and lose the 142.86; if the other side wins you collect 300 (142.86 × 2.10) and lose your 100.

Break even on the other side means placing only enough to cover your original stake if you are wrong: 100 / (2.10 − 1) = 90.91. You then keep 109.09 if your bet wins and walk away with nothing lost if it does not. This is the usual choice when you still believe in the bet and just want to remove the downside.

A target profit works the other way round. Ask for 20 if your bet wins and the calculator backs the other side with 180, which leaves 98 if the other side comes in. Targets are solved exactly: each outcome you constrain becomes an equation, and the remaining outcomes share whatever profit is left. A target that would need a negative stake (more than the bet can return) is reported as unreachable rather than approximated.

3-way markets and lays

In a 3-way market you back both other outcomes. Equal profit on 100 at 3.00 against 4.00 and 5.00 is 75 on the draw and 60 on the away win, locking 65. Set the draw to break even instead and the stakes become 53.33 and 60, leaving 86.67 if either your team or the away side wins and 0 on the draw. Try that example.

Laying on an exchange hedges with a single bet against your own selection. The calculator sizes the lay stake so both outcomes leave the same amount after commission: lay stake = return / (lay odds − commission rate) with commission on net winnings, which is how Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook charge. Laying at 1.90 with 5% against the same 3.00 bet takes a lay stake of 162.16, a liability of 145.95, and locks in 54.05. When you enter stakes yourself, type the lay stake (the backer's stake the exchange shows), and the calculator reports the liability.

Commission

Back odds are used as entered, so a second bookmaker's margin is already inside them. Switch on with exchange commission for a price that sits at an exchange: that hedge stake becomes return / (1 + (odds − 1) × (1 − rate)), so the same cash is left after commission. Against 2.10 with 5% that is 146.70 instead of 142.86, locking 53.30 instead of 57.14. Commission on your original bet reduces the return the hedge is sized from: 100 at 3.00 with 5% returns 290 rather than 300, and the equal-profit hedge at 2.10 becomes 138.10, locking 51.90. A rate charged on turnover is applied to the lay's liability, as in the arbitrage calculator.

Frequently asked questions

What is hedging a bet?

Betting on the other outcomes of a market you already have a bet on, so that the combined position pays out whatever happens. Bettors hedge when the odds have moved in their favour, when a leg of an accumulator is the last one standing, or simply to reduce risk before the event.

Is hedging the same as arbitrage?

The maths is the same: it is the arbitrage calculator with one leg fixed at the stake you already placed. The difference is that a hedge is usually placed after the odds have moved, so the locked profit comes from that move rather than from a pricing error between bookmakers. This page adds the per-outcome targets, which the arbitrage page does not need.

Should I hedge for equal profit or break even?

Equal profit removes all uncertainty; break even keeps your original bet alive and only protects the stake. Which is better depends on whether you still think your bet is good value at the current odds. The fair-value question is what the cashout calculator answers; this page just prices whichever choice you make.

Why does the calculator refuse my target?

Because no stake on the other side can produce it. If your bet wins you lose every hedge stake, so the most you can keep on that outcome is the bet's own profit; a target above that would need a negative hedge stake. The same applies to a target on another outcome that is higher than its odds can pay after your stake is lost.

Which outcomes can I set a target on?

Any of them, as long as one stays on equal profit. With two hedge stakes (a 3-way market) you can fix two outcomes and the third follows; with one hedge stake (2-way or lay) you can fix one outcome. The calculator disables the last equal-profit switch so you cannot over-constrain the position.

How is hedging different from cashing out?

A cashout is the bookmaker's own price for settling your bet, margin included. A hedge uses the market's price instead, so it usually locks in more. The cashout calculator compares the two side by side; this page goes deeper on the hedge itself.