-430 Odds Explained
- Decimal
- 1.23
- American
- -430
- Fractional
- 10/43
- Implied probability
- 81.13%
- Polymarket
- 81¢
- $100 wins
- 23.26
- American
- -430
- Fractional
- 10/43
- Implied probability
- 81.13%
- Polymarket
- 81¢
- Profit
- 23.26
- Total return
- 123.26
1.233 decimal, -430 American, 81.13% implied probability
-430 is an American price:
the minus sign marks a favourite, and the number is the stake needed to win 100
. Every other format describes the same chance: 1.23 decimal, 10/43 fractional, 81.13% implied probability, 81¢ on Polymarket.
What -430 pays
A 100 stake at -430 returns 123.26 in total: your 100 back plus 23.26 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 430.00. The table covers the stakes people actually use.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.33 | 12.33 |
| 25 | 5.81 | 30.81 |
| 50 | 11.63 | 61.63 |
| 100 | 23.26 | 123.26 |
| 500 | 116.28 | 616.28 |
| 1,000 | 232.56 | 1,232.56 |
Break-even and long-run results
The implied probability of -430 is 81.13%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 81.13% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 50% | -38.4% |
| 55% | -32.2% |
| 60% | -26.0% |
| 65% | -19.9% |
| 81% | -0.2% |
At 81.13% this is a heavy favourite. Prices this short appear when one side is expected to win comfortably: a top seed against a qualifier, a strong home team against a relegation candidate, or a moneyline in a game with a double-digit spread. The catch is the payout. You need to win more than 81.13% of these bets just to stand still, and one loss wipes out several wins.
The vig at -430
If both sides of a two-way market were priced at -430, the implied probabilities would add up to 62.26% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a 38.37% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.
-430 on a betting exchange
Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission -430 is worth 1.228 decimal (-439 American); at 5% it drops to 1.221 (-453). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.228 | -439 | 81.44% |
| 5% | 1.221 | -453 | 81.90% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does -430 mean in betting?
-430 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At -430 the implied probability is 81.13% and a 100 stake returns 123.26.
What is -430 in decimal odds?
-430 converts to 1.233 in decimal odds (usually shown as 1.23). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 1.233 to get the return.
What is -430 as a fraction?
-430 is 10/43 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.
How much do I win on a 100 bet at -430?
A 100 stake at -430 wins 23.26 in profit and returns 123.26 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 430.00.
What win rate do I need at -430?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 81.13%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.