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+401 Odds Explained

Decimal
5.01
American
+401
Fractional
401/100
Implied probability
19.96%
Polymarket
20¢
$100 wins
401.00
Inputs
Results
Decimal odds5.010
American
+401
Fractional
401/100
Implied probability
19.96%
Polymarket
20¢
Profit
401.00
Total return
501.00

5.010 decimal, +401 American, 19.96% implied probability

American odds of +401 mean

a 100 stake wins 401

. In decimal notation that is 5.01, in fractional notation 401/100, and the implied probability is 19.96%. On a prediction market the same price is a 20¢ share.

What +401 pays

A 100 stake at +401 returns 501.00 in total: your 100 back plus 401.00 profit. To win exactly 100 you would stake 24.94. The table covers the stakes people actually use.

Payout by stake
StakeProfitTotal return
1040.1050.10
25100.25125.25
50200.50250.50
100401.00501.00
5002,005.002,505.00
1,0004,010.005,010.00

Break-even and long-run results

The implied probability of +401 is 19.96%, and that number is also the break-even win rate: win more often than 19.96% of the time at this price and you profit in the long run, win less often and you lose. The table shows the return on stake at a few win rates, including the break-even rate itself.

Return on stake by long-run win rate
Win rateReturn on stake
20%0.2%
50%150.5%
55%175.6%
60%200.6%
65%225.7%

+401 is a longshot. The bookmaker prices the outcome at 19.96%, and the payout of 401.00 per 100 staked is the compensation for how rarely it lands. Longshots carry more margin than any other part of the market, which is why devigging methods disagree most at prices like this one.

The vig at +401

If both sides of a two-way market were priced at +401, the implied probabilities would add up to -60.08% above 100%. That excess is the overround, or vig; as a share of stakes it is a -150.50% margin for the bookmaker. Removing it leaves fair odds of 2.00 decimal ( +100) on each side. Use the devig calculator to do the same for any market.

+401 on a betting exchange

Exchanges charge commission on net winnings, so the price you see is not the price you get. At 2% commission +401 is worth 4.930 decimal (+393 American); at 5% it drops to 4.810 (+381). Those are the bookmaker prices you would need to beat.

Effective odds on an exchange
CommissionEffective decimalEffective AmericanBreak-even
2%4.930+39320.28%
5%4.810+38120.79%

Same price in other formats

Same price in other formats

Nearby prices

Nearby prices

  • +391 · 4.91 · 20.4%
  • +396 · 4.96 · 20.2%
  • +399 · 4.99 · 20.0%
  • +400 · 5.00 · 20.0%
  • +402 · 5.02 · 19.9%
  • +403 · 5.03 · 19.9%
  • +406 · 5.06 · 19.8%
  • +411 · 5.11 · 19.6%

Frequently asked questions

What does +401 mean in betting?

+401 is an American price. Positive numbers show the profit on a 100 stake; negative numbers show the stake needed to win 100. At +401 the implied probability is 19.96% and a 100 stake returns 501.00.

What is +401 in decimal odds?

+401 converts to 5.010 in decimal odds (usually shown as 5.01). Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, so multiply your stake by 5.010 to get the return.

What is +401 as a fraction?

+401 is 401/100 in fractional odds, the traditional bookmaker notation where the top number is profit and the bottom number is stake.

How much do I win on a 100 bet at +401?

A 100 stake at +401 wins 401.00 in profit and returns 501.00 including the stake. To win exactly 100 you would stake 24.94.

What win rate do I need at +401?

The break-even win rate equals the implied probability, 19.96%. Winning more often than that at this price is profitable over the long run; winning less often loses money.