20¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 5.00
- American
- +400
- Fractional
- 4/1
- Implied probability
- 20.00%
- Polymarket
- 20¢
- $100 wins
- 400.00
- American
- +400
- Fractional
- 4/1
- Implied probability
- 20.00%
- Polymarket
- 20¢
- Profit
- 400.00
- Total return
- 500.00
5.000 decimal, +400 American, 20.00% implied probability
20¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 20.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 5.00, and from there the American price of +400.
What a 20¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 500.00, a profit of 400.00.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 40.00 | 50.00 |
| 25 | 100.00 | 125.00 |
| 50 | 200.00 | 250.00 |
| 100 | 400.00 | 500.00 |
| 500 | 2,000.00 | 2,500.00 |
| 1,000 | 4,000.00 | 5,000.00 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 20.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 20.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 20% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 150.0% |
| 55% | 175.0% |
| 60% | 200.0% |
| 65% | 225.0% |
A 20¢ share is a longshot: 20.00% by the market's estimate, paying 400.00 per 100. Thin order books at low prices mean the quoted price and the price you actually get can differ by several cents.
Converting 20¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 20¢ is 20.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 5.000, which bookmakers would display as 5.00. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (5.000 − 1) × 100 gives +400. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 4/1.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 20¢ the NO side should be near 80.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 4.920 decimal, at 5% 4.800. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 4.920 | +392 | 20.33% |
| 5% | 4.800 | +380 | 20.83% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 20¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 20¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 20.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 5.00 decimal or +400 American odds.
How do I convert 20¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 20¢ gives 5.000, shown as 5.00.
What is the NO price when YES is 20¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 80.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 20¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 20¢ the share is worth 5.00 decimal before fees and 4.920 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 20¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 20¢ shares, which pay 500.00 in total on a win: a profit of 400.00.