22¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 4.55
- American
- +355
- Fractional
- 39/11
- Implied probability
- 22.00%
- Polymarket
- 22¢
- $100 wins
- 354.55
- American
- +355
- Fractional
- 39/11
- Implied probability
- 22.00%
- Polymarket
- 22¢
- Profit
- 354.55
- Total return
- 454.55
4.545 decimal, +355 American, 22.00% implied probability
Buying at 22¢ means risking 22¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 4.55 (decimal odds) or +355 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 22.00% probability before fees.
What a 22¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 454.55, a profit of 354.55.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 35.45 | 45.45 |
| 25 | 88.64 | 113.64 |
| 50 | 177.27 | 227.27 |
| 100 | 354.55 | 454.55 |
| 500 | 1,772.73 | 2,272.73 |
| 1,000 | 3,545.45 | 4,545.45 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 22.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 22.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 22% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 127.3% |
| 55% | 150.0% |
| 60% | 172.7% |
| 65% | 195.5% |
A 22¢ share is a longshot: 22.00% by the market's estimate, paying 354.55 per 100. Thin order books at low prices mean the quoted price and the price you actually get can differ by several cents.
Converting 22¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 22¢ is 22.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 4.545, which bookmakers would display as 4.55. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (4.545 − 1) × 100 gives +355. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 39/11.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 22¢ the NO side should be near 78.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 4.475 decimal, at 5% 4.368. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 4.475 | +347 | 22.35% |
| 5% | 4.368 | +337 | 22.89% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 22¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 22¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 22.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 4.55 decimal or +355 American odds.
How do I convert 22¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 22¢ gives 4.545, shown as 4.55.
What is the NO price when YES is 22¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 78.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 22¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 22¢ the share is worth 4.55 decimal before fees and 4.475 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 22¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 22¢ shares, which pay 454.55 in total on a win: a profit of 354.55.