23¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 4.35
- American
- +335
- Fractional
- 77/23
- Implied probability
- 23.00%
- Polymarket
- 23¢
- $100 wins
- 334.78
- American
- +335
- Fractional
- 77/23
- Implied probability
- 23.00%
- Polymarket
- 23¢
- Profit
- 334.78
- Total return
- 434.78
4.348 decimal, +335 American, 23.00% implied probability
23¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 23.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 4.35, and from there the American price of +335.
What a 23¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 434.78, a profit of 334.78.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 33.48 | 43.48 |
| 25 | 83.70 | 108.70 |
| 50 | 167.39 | 217.39 |
| 100 | 334.78 | 434.78 |
| 500 | 1,673.91 | 2,173.91 |
| 1,000 | 3,347.83 | 4,347.83 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 23.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 23.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 23% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 117.4% |
| 55% | 139.1% |
| 60% | 160.9% |
| 65% | 182.6% |
A 23¢ share is a longshot: 23.00% by the market's estimate, paying 334.78 per 100. Thin order books at low prices mean the quoted price and the price you actually get can differ by several cents.
Converting 23¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 23¢ is 23.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 4.348, which bookmakers would display as 4.35. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (4.348 − 1) × 100 gives +335. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 77/23.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 23¢ the NO side should be near 77.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 4.281 decimal, at 5% 4.180. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 4.281 | +328 | 23.36% |
| 5% | 4.180 | +318 | 23.92% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 23¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 23¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 23.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 4.35 decimal or +335 American odds.
How do I convert 23¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 23¢ gives 4.348, shown as 4.35.
What is the NO price when YES is 23¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 77.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 23¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 23¢ the share is worth 4.35 decimal before fees and 4.281 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 23¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 23¢ shares, which pay 434.78 in total on a win: a profit of 334.78.