25¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 4.00
- American
- +300
- Fractional
- 3/1
- Implied probability
- 25.00%
- Polymarket
- 25¢
- $100 wins
- 300.00
- American
- +300
- Fractional
- 3/1
- Implied probability
- 25.00%
- Polymarket
- 25¢
- Profit
- 300.00
- Total return
- 400.00
4.000 decimal, +300 American, 25.00% implied probability
Buying at 25¢ means risking 25¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 4.00 (decimal odds) or +300 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 25.00% probability before fees.
What a 25¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 400.00, a profit of 300.00.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 30.00 | 40.00 |
| 25 | 75.00 | 100.00 |
| 50 | 150.00 | 200.00 |
| 100 | 300.00 | 400.00 |
| 500 | 1,500.00 | 2,000.00 |
| 1,000 | 3,000.00 | 4,000.00 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 25.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 25.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 25% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 100.0% |
| 55% | 120.0% |
| 60% | 140.0% |
| 65% | 160.0% |
25¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 25.00% and a payout of 300.00 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.
Converting 25¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 25¢ is 25.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 4.000, which bookmakers would display as 4.00. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (4.000 − 1) × 100 gives +300. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 3/1.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 25¢ the NO side should be near 75.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 3.940 decimal, at 5% 3.850. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 3.940 | +294 | 25.38% |
| 5% | 3.850 | +285 | 25.97% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 25¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 25¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 25.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 4.00 decimal or +300 American odds.
How do I convert 25¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 25¢ gives 4.000, shown as 4.00.
What is the NO price when YES is 25¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 75.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 25¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 25¢ the share is worth 4.00 decimal before fees and 3.940 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 25¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 25¢ shares, which pay 400.00 in total on a win: a profit of 300.00.