30¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 3.33
- American
- +233
- Fractional
- 7/3
- Implied probability
- 30.00%
- Polymarket
- 30¢
- $100 wins
- 233.33
- American
- +233
- Fractional
- 7/3
- Implied probability
- 30.00%
- Polymarket
- 30¢
- Profit
- 233.33
- Total return
- 333.33
3.333 decimal, +233 American, 30.00% implied probability
Buying at 30¢ means risking 30¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 3.33 (decimal odds) or +233 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 30.00% probability before fees.
What a 30¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 333.33, a profit of 233.33.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 23.33 | 33.33 |
| 25 | 58.33 | 83.33 |
| 50 | 116.67 | 166.67 |
| 100 | 233.33 | 333.33 |
| 500 | 1,166.67 | 1,666.67 |
| 1,000 | 2,333.33 | 3,333.33 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 30.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 30.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 30% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 66.7% |
| 55% | 83.3% |
| 60% | 100.0% |
| 65% | 116.7% |
30¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 30.00% and a payout of 233.33 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.
Converting 30¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 30¢ is 30.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 3.333, which bookmakers would display as 3.33. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (3.333 − 1) × 100 gives +233. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 7/3.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 30¢ the NO side should be near 70.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 3.287 decimal, at 5% 3.217. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 3.287 | +229 | 30.43% |
| 5% | 3.217 | +222 | 31.09% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 30¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 30¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 30.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 3.33 decimal or +233 American odds.
How do I convert 30¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 30¢ gives 3.333, shown as 3.33.
What is the NO price when YES is 30¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 70.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 30¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 30¢ the share is worth 3.33 decimal before fees and 3.287 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 30¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 30¢ shares, which pay 333.33 in total on a win: a profit of 233.33.