31¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 3.23
- American
- +223
- Fractional
- 69/31
- Implied probability
- 31.00%
- Polymarket
- 31¢
- $100 wins
- 222.58
- American
- +223
- Fractional
- 69/31
- Implied probability
- 31.00%
- Polymarket
- 31¢
- Profit
- 222.58
- Total return
- 322.58
3.226 decimal, +223 American, 31.00% implied probability
Buying at 31¢ means risking 31¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 3.23 (decimal odds) or +223 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 31.00% probability before fees.
What a 31¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 322.58, a profit of 222.58.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 22.26 | 32.26 |
| 25 | 55.65 | 80.65 |
| 50 | 111.29 | 161.29 |
| 100 | 222.58 | 322.58 |
| 500 | 1,112.90 | 1,612.90 |
| 1,000 | 2,225.81 | 3,225.81 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 31.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 31.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 31% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 61.3% |
| 55% | 77.4% |
| 60% | 93.5% |
| 65% | 109.7% |
31¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 31.00% and a payout of 222.58 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.
Converting 31¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 31¢ is 31.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 3.226, which bookmakers would display as 3.23. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (3.226 − 1) × 100 gives +223. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 69/31.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 31¢ the NO side should be near 69.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 3.181 decimal, at 5% 3.115. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 3.181 | +218 | 31.43% |
| 5% | 3.115 | +211 | 32.11% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 31¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 31¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 31.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 3.23 decimal or +223 American odds.
How do I convert 31¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 31¢ gives 3.226, shown as 3.23.
What is the NO price when YES is 31¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 69.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 31¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 31¢ the share is worth 3.23 decimal before fees and 3.181 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 31¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 31¢ shares, which pay 322.58 in total on a win: a profit of 222.58.