18¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 5.56
- American
- +456
- Fractional
- 41/9
- Implied probability
- 18.00%
- Polymarket
- 18¢
- $100 wins
- 455.56
- American
- +456
- Fractional
- 41/9
- Implied probability
- 18.00%
- Polymarket
- 18¢
- Profit
- 455.56
- Total return
- 555.56
5.556 decimal, +456 American, 18.00% implied probability
A Polymarket share priced at 18¢ pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 18.00%. In sportsbook terms that is 5.56 decimal odds or +456 American odds. The NO side of the same market sits near 82.00%.
What an 18¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 555.56, a profit of 455.56.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 45.56 | 55.56 |
| 25 | 113.89 | 138.89 |
| 50 | 227.78 | 277.78 |
| 100 | 455.56 | 555.56 |
| 500 | 2,277.78 | 2,777.78 |
| 1,000 | 4,555.56 | 5,555.56 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 18.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 18.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 18% | -0.0% |
| 50% | 177.8% |
| 55% | 205.6% |
| 60% | 233.3% |
| 65% | 261.1% |
An 18¢ share is a longshot: 18.00% by the market's estimate, paying 455.56 per 100. Thin order books at low prices mean the quoted price and the price you actually get can differ by several cents.
Converting 18¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 18¢ is 18.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 5.556, which bookmakers would display as 5.56. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (5.556 − 1) × 100 gives +456. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 41/9.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 18¢ the NO side should be near 82.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 5.464 decimal, at 5% 5.328. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 5.464 | +446 | 18.30% |
| 5% | 5.328 | +433 | 18.77% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does an 18¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 18¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 18.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 5.56 decimal or +456 American odds.
How do I convert 18¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 18¢ gives 5.556, shown as 5.56.
What is the NO price when YES is 18¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 82.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 18¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 18¢ the share is worth 5.56 decimal before fees and 5.464 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 18¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 18¢ shares, which pay 555.56 in total on a win: a profit of 455.56.