16¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 6.25
- American
- +525
- Fractional
- 21/4
- Implied probability
- 16.00%
- Polymarket
- 16¢
- $100 wins
- 525.00
- American
- +525
- Fractional
- 21/4
- Implied probability
- 16.00%
- Polymarket
- 16¢
- Profit
- 525.00
- Total return
- 625.00
6.250 decimal, +525 American, 16.00% implied probability
16¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 16.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 6.25, and from there the American price of +525.
What a 16¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 625.00, a profit of 525.00.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 52.50 | 62.50 |
| 25 | 131.25 | 156.25 |
| 50 | 262.50 | 312.50 |
| 100 | 525.00 | 625.00 |
| 500 | 2,625.00 | 3,125.00 |
| 1,000 | 5,250.00 | 6,250.00 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 16.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 16.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 16% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 212.5% |
| 55% | 243.8% |
| 60% | 275.0% |
| 65% | 306.3% |
A 16¢ share is a longshot: 16.00% by the market's estimate, paying 525.00 per 100. Thin order books at low prices mean the quoted price and the price you actually get can differ by several cents.
Converting 16¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 16¢ is 16.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 6.250, which bookmakers would display as 6.25. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (6.250 − 1) × 100 gives +525. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 21/4.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 16¢ the NO side should be near 84.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 6.145 decimal, at 5% 5.988. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 6.145 | +515 | 16.27% |
| 5% | 5.988 | +499 | 16.70% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 16¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 16¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 16.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 6.25 decimal or +525 American odds.
How do I convert 16¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 16¢ gives 6.250, shown as 6.25.
What is the NO price when YES is 16¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 84.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 16¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 16¢ the share is worth 6.25 decimal before fees and 6.145 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 16¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 16¢ shares, which pay 625.00 in total on a win: a profit of 525.00.