21¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 4.76
- American
- +376
- Fractional
- 79/21
- Implied probability
- 21.00%
- Polymarket
- 21¢
- $100 wins
- 376.19
- American
- +376
- Fractional
- 79/21
- Implied probability
- 21.00%
- Polymarket
- 21¢
- Profit
- 376.19
- Total return
- 476.19
4.762 decimal, +376 American, 21.00% implied probability
Buying at 21¢ means risking 21¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 4.76 (decimal odds) or +376 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 21.00% probability before fees.
What a 21¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 476.19, a profit of 376.19.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 37.62 | 47.62 |
| 25 | 94.05 | 119.05 |
| 50 | 188.10 | 238.10 |
| 100 | 376.19 | 476.19 |
| 500 | 1,880.95 | 2,380.95 |
| 1,000 | 3,761.90 | 4,761.90 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 21.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 21.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 21% | -0.0% |
| 50% | 138.1% |
| 55% | 161.9% |
| 60% | 185.7% |
| 65% | 209.5% |
A 21¢ share is a longshot: 21.00% by the market's estimate, paying 376.19 per 100. Thin order books at low prices mean the quoted price and the price you actually get can differ by several cents.
Converting 21¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 21¢ is 21.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 4.762, which bookmakers would display as 4.76. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (4.762 − 1) × 100 gives +376. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 79/21.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 21¢ the NO side should be near 79.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 4.687 decimal, at 5% 4.574. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 4.687 | +369 | 21.34% |
| 5% | 4.574 | +357 | 21.86% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 21¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 21¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 21.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 4.76 decimal or +376 American odds.
How do I convert 21¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 21¢ gives 4.762, shown as 4.76.
What is the NO price when YES is 21¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 79.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 21¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 21¢ the share is worth 4.76 decimal before fees and 4.687 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 21¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 21¢ shares, which pay 476.19 in total on a win: a profit of 376.19.