4¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 25.00
- American
- +2,400
- Fractional
- 24/1
- Implied probability
- 4.00%
- Polymarket
- 4¢
- $100 wins
- 2,400.00
- American
- +2,400
- Fractional
- 24/1
- Implied probability
- 4.00%
- Polymarket
- 4¢
- Profit
- 2,400.00
- Total return
- 2,500.00
25.000 decimal, +2,400 American, 4.00% implied probability
4¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 4.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 25.00, and from there the American price of +2,400.
What a 4¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 2,500.00, a profit of 2,400.00.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 240.00 | 250.00 |
| 25 | 600.00 | 625.00 |
| 50 | 1,200.00 | 1,250.00 |
| 100 | 2,400.00 | 2,500.00 |
| 500 | 12,000.00 | 12,500.00 |
| 1,000 | 24,000.00 | 25,000.00 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 4.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 4.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 4% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 1,150.0% |
| 55% | 1,275.0% |
| 60% | 1,400.0% |
| 65% | 1,525.0% |
A 4¢ share is a longshot: 4.00% by the market's estimate, paying 2,400.00 per 100. Thin order books at low prices mean the quoted price and the price you actually get can differ by several cents.
Converting 4¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 4¢ is 4.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 25.000, which bookmakers would display as 25.00. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (25.000 − 1) × 100 gives +2,400. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 24/1.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 4¢ the NO side should be near 96.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 24.520 decimal, at 5% 23.800. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 24.520 | +2,352 | 4.08% |
| 5% | 23.800 | +2,280 | 4.20% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 4¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 4¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 4.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 25.00 decimal or +2,400 American odds.
How do I convert 4¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 4¢ gives 25.000, shown as 25.00.
What is the NO price when YES is 4¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 96.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 4¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 4¢ the share is worth 25.00 decimal before fees and 24.520 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 4¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 4¢ shares, which pay 2,500.00 in total on a win: a profit of 2,400.00.