45¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 2.22
- American
- +122
- Fractional
- 11/9
- Implied probability
- 45.00%
- Polymarket
- 45¢
- $100 wins
- 122.22
- American
- +122
- Fractional
- 11/9
- Implied probability
- 45.00%
- Polymarket
- 45¢
- Profit
- 122.22
- Total return
- 222.22
2.222 decimal, +122 American, 45.00% implied probability
45¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 45.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 2.22, and from there the American price of +122.
What a 45¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 222.22, a profit of 122.22.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 12.22 | 22.22 |
| 25 | 30.56 | 55.56 |
| 50 | 61.11 | 111.11 |
| 100 | 122.22 | 222.22 |
| 500 | 611.11 | 1,111.11 |
| 1,000 | 1,222.22 | 2,222.22 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 45.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 45.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 45% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 11.1% |
| 55% | 22.2% |
| 60% | 33.3% |
| 65% | 44.4% |
45¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 45.00% and a payout of 122.22 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.
Converting 45¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 45¢ is 45.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 2.222, which bookmakers would display as 2.22. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (2.222 − 1) × 100 gives +122. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 11/9.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 45¢ the NO side should be near 55.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 2.198 decimal, at 5% 2.161. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 2.198 | +120 | 45.50% |
| 5% | 2.161 | +116 | 46.27% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 45¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 45¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 45.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 2.22 decimal or +122 American odds.
How do I convert 45¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 45¢ gives 2.222, shown as 2.22.
What is the NO price when YES is 45¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 55.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 45¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 45¢ the share is worth 2.22 decimal before fees and 2.198 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 45¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 45¢ shares, which pay 222.22 in total on a win: a profit of 122.22.