40¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 2.50
- American
- +150
- Fractional
- 6/4
- Implied probability
- 40.00%
- Polymarket
- 40¢
- $100 wins
- 150.00
- American
- +150
- Fractional
- 6/4
- Implied probability
- 40.00%
- Polymarket
- 40¢
- Profit
- 150.00
- Total return
- 250.00
2.500 decimal, +150 American, 40.00% implied probability
A Polymarket share priced at 40¢ pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 40.00%. In sportsbook terms that is 2.50 decimal odds or +150 American odds. The NO side of the same market sits near 60.00%.
What a 40¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 250.00, a profit of 150.00.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 15.00 | 25.00 |
| 25 | 37.50 | 62.50 |
| 50 | 75.00 | 125.00 |
| 100 | 150.00 | 250.00 |
| 500 | 750.00 | 1,250.00 |
| 1,000 | 1,500.00 | 2,500.00 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 40.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 40.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 40% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 25.0% |
| 55% | 37.5% |
| 60% | 50.0% |
| 65% | 62.5% |
40¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 40.00% and a payout of 150.00 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.
Converting 40¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 40¢ is 40.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 2.500, which bookmakers would display as 2.50. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (2.500 − 1) × 100 gives +150. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 6/4.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 40¢ the NO side should be near 60.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 2.470 decimal, at 5% 2.425. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 2.470 | +147 | 40.49% |
| 5% | 2.425 | +142 | 41.24% |
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 40¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 40¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 40.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 2.50 decimal or +150 American odds.
How do I convert 40¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 40¢ gives 2.500, shown as 2.50.
What is the NO price when YES is 40¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 60.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 40¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 40¢ the share is worth 2.50 decimal before fees and 2.470 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 40¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 40¢ shares, which pay 250.00 in total on a win: a profit of 150.00.