38¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 2.63
- American
- +163
- Fractional
- 31/19
- Implied probability
- 38.00%
- Polymarket
- 38¢
- $100 wins
- 163.16
- American
- +163
- Fractional
- 31/19
- Implied probability
- 38.00%
- Polymarket
- 38¢
- Profit
- 163.16
- Total return
- 263.16
2.632 decimal, +163 American, 38.00% implied probability
Buying at 38¢ means risking 38¢ to win the rest of a dollar. That is a payout ratio of 2.63 (decimal odds) or +163 in American notation, and it implies an implied probability of 38.00% probability before fees.
What a 38¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 263.16, a profit of 163.16.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 16.32 | 26.32 |
| 25 | 40.79 | 65.79 |
| 50 | 81.58 | 131.58 |
| 100 | 163.16 | 263.16 |
| 500 | 815.79 | 1,315.79 |
| 1,000 | 1,631.58 | 2,631.58 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 38.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 38.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 38% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 31.6% |
| 55% | 44.7% |
| 60% | 57.9% |
| 65% | 71.1% |
38¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 38.00% and a payout of 163.16 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.
Converting 38¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 38¢ is 38.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 2.632, which bookmakers would display as 2.63. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (2.632 − 1) × 100 gives +163. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 31/19.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 38¢ the NO side should be near 62.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 2.599 decimal, at 5% 2.550. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 2.599 | +160 | 38.48% |
| 5% | 2.550 | +155 | 39.22% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 38¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 38¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 38.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 2.63 decimal or +163 American odds.
How do I convert 38¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 38¢ gives 2.632, shown as 2.63.
What is the NO price when YES is 38¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 62.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 38¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 38¢ the share is worth 2.63 decimal before fees and 2.599 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 38¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 38¢ shares, which pay 263.16 in total on a win: a profit of 163.16.