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41¢ Polymarket Price Explained

Decimal
2.44
American
+144
Fractional
59/41
Implied probability
41.00%
Polymarket
41¢
$100 wins
143.90
Inputs
Results
Decimal odds2.439
American
+144
Fractional
59/41
Implied probability
41.00%
Polymarket
41¢
Profit
143.90
Total return
243.90

2.439 decimal, +144 American, 41.00% implied probability

41¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 41.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 2.44, and from there the American price of +144.

What a 41¢ share pays

Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 243.90, a profit of 143.90.

Payout by stake
StakeProfitTotal return
1014.3924.39
2535.9860.98
5071.95121.95
100143.90243.90
500719.511,219.51
1,0001,439.022,439.02

Break-even and long-run results

Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 41.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 41.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.

Return on stake by long-run win rate
Win rateReturn on stake
41%-0.0%
50%22.0%
55%34.1%
60%46.3%
65%58.5%

41¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 41.00% and a payout of 143.90 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.

Converting 41¢ by hand

Treat the price as a probability: 41¢ is 41.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 2.439, which bookmakers would display as 2.44. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (2.439 − 1) × 100 gives +144. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 59/41.

YES, NO and the spread

On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 41¢ the NO side should be near 59.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.

Fees and comparison with sportsbooks

Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 2.410 decimal, at 5% 2.367. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.

Effective odds on an exchange
CommissionEffective decimalEffective AmericanBreak-even
2%2.410+14141.49%
5%2.367+13742.25%

Same price in other formats

Same price in other formats

Nearby prices

Nearby prices

  • 36¢ · 2.78 · 36.0%
  • 39¢ · 2.56 · 39.0%
  • 40¢ · 2.50 · 40.0%
  • 42¢ · 2.38 · 42.0%
  • 43¢ · 2.33 · 43.0%
  • 46¢ · 2.17 · 46.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does a 41¢ price mean on Polymarket?

A share costs 41¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 41.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 2.44 decimal or +144 American odds.

How do I convert 41¢ to decimal odds?

Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 41¢ gives 2.439, shown as 2.44.

What is the NO price when YES is 41¢?

On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 59.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.

Is 41¢ better than the sportsbook price?

Compare after fees. At 41¢ the share is worth 2.44 decimal before fees and 2.410 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.

What do I win per 100 dollars at 41¢?

100 dollars buys 100 / 41¢ shares, which pay 243.90 in total on a win: a profit of 143.90.