41¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 2.44
- American
- +144
- Fractional
- 59/41
- Implied probability
- 41.00%
- Polymarket
- 41¢
- $100 wins
- 143.90
- American
- +144
- Fractional
- 59/41
- Implied probability
- 41.00%
- Polymarket
- 41¢
- Profit
- 143.90
- Total return
- 243.90
2.439 decimal, +144 American, 41.00% implied probability
41¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 41.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 2.44, and from there the American price of +144.
What a 41¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 243.90, a profit of 143.90.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 14.39 | 24.39 |
| 25 | 35.98 | 60.98 |
| 50 | 71.95 | 121.95 |
| 100 | 143.90 | 243.90 |
| 500 | 719.51 | 1,219.51 |
| 1,000 | 1,439.02 | 2,439.02 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 41.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 41.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 41% | -0.0% |
| 50% | 22.0% |
| 55% | 34.1% |
| 60% | 46.3% |
| 65% | 58.5% |
41¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 41.00% and a payout of 143.90 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.
Converting 41¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 41¢ is 41.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 2.439, which bookmakers would display as 2.44. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (2.439 − 1) × 100 gives +144. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 59/41.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 41¢ the NO side should be near 59.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 2.410 decimal, at 5% 2.367. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 2.410 | +141 | 41.49% |
| 5% | 2.367 | +137 | 42.25% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 41¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 41¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 41.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 2.44 decimal or +144 American odds.
How do I convert 41¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 41¢ gives 2.439, shown as 2.44.
What is the NO price when YES is 41¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 59.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 41¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 41¢ the share is worth 2.44 decimal before fees and 2.410 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 41¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 41¢ shares, which pay 243.90 in total on a win: a profit of 143.90.