42¢ Polymarket Price Explained
- Decimal
- 2.38
- American
- +138
- Fractional
- 29/21
- Implied probability
- 42.00%
- Polymarket
- 42¢
- $100 wins
- 138.10
- American
- +138
- Fractional
- 29/21
- Implied probability
- 42.00%
- Polymarket
- 42¢
- Profit
- 138.10
- Total return
- 238.10
2.381 decimal, +138 American, 42.00% implied probability
42¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 42.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 2.38, and from there the American price of +138.
What a 42¢ share pays
Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 238.10, a profit of 138.10.
| Stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 13.81 | 23.81 |
| 25 | 34.52 | 59.52 |
| 50 | 69.05 | 119.05 |
| 100 | 138.10 | 238.10 |
| 500 | 690.48 | 1,190.48 |
| 1,000 | 1,380.95 | 2,380.95 |
Break-even and long-run results
Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 42.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 42.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.
| Win rate | Return on stake |
|---|---|
| 42% | -0.0% |
| 50% | 19.0% |
| 55% | 31.0% |
| 60% | 42.9% |
| 65% | 54.8% |
42¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 42.00% and a payout of 138.10 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.
Converting 42¢ by hand
Treat the price as a probability: 42¢ is 42.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 2.381, which bookmakers would display as 2.38. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (2.381 − 1) × 100 gives +138. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 29/21.
YES, NO and the spread
On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 42¢ the NO side should be near 58.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.
Fees and comparison with sportsbooks
Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 2.353 decimal, at 5% 2.312. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.
| Commission | Effective decimal | Effective American | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 2.353 | +135 | 42.49% |
| 5% | 2.312 | +131 | 43.25% |
Same price in other formats
Same price in other formats
Nearby prices
Nearby prices
Frequently asked questions
What does a 42¢ price mean on Polymarket?
A share costs 42¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 42.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 2.38 decimal or +138 American odds.
How do I convert 42¢ to decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 42¢ gives 2.381, shown as 2.38.
What is the NO price when YES is 42¢?
On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 58.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.
Is 42¢ better than the sportsbook price?
Compare after fees. At 42¢ the share is worth 2.38 decimal before fees and 2.353 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.
What do I win per 100 dollars at 42¢?
100 dollars buys 100 / 42¢ shares, which pay 238.10 in total on a win: a profit of 138.10.