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42¢ Polymarket Price Explained

Decimal
2.38
American
+138
Fractional
29/21
Implied probability
42.00%
Polymarket
42¢
$100 wins
138.10
Inputs
Results
Decimal odds2.381
American
+138
Fractional
29/21
Implied probability
42.00%
Polymarket
42¢
Profit
138.10
Total return
238.10

2.381 decimal, +138 American, 42.00% implied probability

42¢ is what a YES (or NO) share costs when the market thinks the outcome is 42.00% likely. Because a winning share pays a dollar, dividing one by the price gives the decimal odds, 2.38, and from there the American price of +138.

What a 42¢ share pays

Each share pays $1.00 on a win, so the profit per share is a dollar minus the price. On 100 dollars' worth of shares the return is 238.10, a profit of 138.10.

Payout by stake
StakeProfitTotal return
1013.8123.81
2534.5259.52
5069.05119.05
100138.10238.10
500690.481,190.48
1,0001,380.952,380.95

Break-even and long-run results

Because the price is a probability, the break-even rate is the price itself: 42.00%. If your own estimate of the outcome is higher than 42.00%, the share is value; if it is lower, it is not.

Return on stake by long-run win rate
Win rateReturn on stake
42%-0.0%
50%19.0%
55%31.0%
60%42.9%
65%54.8%

42¢ is an underdog share with an implied chance of 42.00% and a payout of 138.10 per 100 dollars staked. Prediction markets often price underdogs closer to fair than sportsbooks do, so this is a good range for cross-market comparison.

Converting 42¢ by hand

Treat the price as a probability: 42¢ is 42.00%. Decimal odds are one divided by that, 2.381, which bookmakers would display as 2.38. American odds follow from the decimal price: an underdog, so (2.381 − 1) × 100 gives +138. In fractional terms the closest traditional price is 29/21.

YES, NO and the spread

On a liquid market the YES and NO prices add up to about $1.00; at 42¢ the NO side should be near 58.00%. Anything above $1.00 in total is the spread, the prediction-market equivalent of a bookmaker's vig. Enter both sides in the Polymarket converter to measure it.

Fees and comparison with sportsbooks

Fees, where a market charges them, come off profit and work exactly like exchange commission. At 2% the share is worth 2.353 decimal, at 5% 2.312. A sportsbook offering better than the effective price beats the market.

Effective odds on an exchange
CommissionEffective decimalEffective AmericanBreak-even
2%2.353+13542.49%
5%2.312+13143.25%

Same price in other formats

Same price in other formats

Nearby prices

Nearby prices

  • 37¢ · 2.70 · 37.0%
  • 40¢ · 2.50 · 40.0%
  • 41¢ · 2.44 · 41.0%
  • 43¢ · 2.33 · 43.0%
  • 44¢ · 2.27 · 44.0%
  • 47¢ · 2.13 · 47.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does a 42¢ price mean on Polymarket?

A share costs 42¢ and pays $1.00 if the market resolves in its favour, so the price is the market's probability: 42.00%. In sportsbook terms it is 2.38 decimal or +138 American odds.

How do I convert 42¢ to decimal odds?

Divide 1 by the price in dollars: 1 / 42¢ gives 2.381, shown as 2.38.

What is the NO price when YES is 42¢?

On a liquid market the NO side is about $1.00 minus the YES price, so roughly 58.00% in cents. The difference from exactly $1.00 in total is the spread.

Is 42¢ better than the sportsbook price?

Compare after fees. At 42¢ the share is worth 2.38 decimal before fees and 2.353 at a 2% fee. If a sportsbook offers more than that on the same outcome, the sportsbook is the better price.

What do I win per 100 dollars at 42¢?

100 dollars buys 100 / 42¢ shares, which pay 238.10 in total on a win: a profit of 138.10.